Lazio v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lazio

14:00 UTC

Roma

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,203h before kick-off

Lazio win

23.2%

model 23.4%

Draw

23.2%

model 23.9%

Roma win

53.5%

model 52.7%

232354

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
0-1 10.7%
1-2 9.7%
0-2 9.2%
1-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.5%	Under 2.5	47.5%
BTTS yes	53.6%	BTTS no	46.4%
Lazio 1+	65.4%	Lazio 2+	28.7%
Roma 1+	82.0%	Roma 2+	51.1%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.71. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Roma (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lazio not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 76%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1755 Elo against 1690.
Roma have created 2.66 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.42.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Roma average 2.84 xG a match.

Risk factors

Lazio have scored 2.40 a match from 1.44 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Roma have an estimated 53.5% win probability, against 23.2% for the draw and 23.2% for Lazio. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.06 for Lazio and 1.71 for Roma.

Why Lazio

Lazio have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.99. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. At home Lazio average 1.64 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Roma were missing 1.93 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Roma can win

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1755 Elo against 1690. Roma have created 2.66 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.42. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. Away from home Roma average 2.84 xG a match.

Key players

Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.28), Daniel Maldini (0.23). Roma's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Donyell Malen (0.81), Paulo Dybala (0.60), Artem Dovbyk (0.30).

Availability

27% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Roma's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Roma's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lazio: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Roma: 53% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Roma are the model's most likely outcome at 53.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 14.2 xG

Roma are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWWWWWDDW last 10 scored 23 from 26.6 xG conceded 5 from 9.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	232453	1.06–1.71	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	262648	1.04–1.50	1-1 12%	47%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win	47.5%	47.4%	33.6%	1.41×	2.11
Lazio to win	27.3%	27.9%	40.1%	0.70×	3.58
Draw	25.2%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & not both score	25.7%	25.2%	20.5%	1.23×	3.97
Roma & both teams score	21.8%	21.8%	13.2%	1.65×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Lazio & not both score	14.1%	13.3%	22.6%	0.59×	7.53
Lazio & both teams score	13.2%	13.3%	17.6%	0.75×	7.54
Draw & not both score	6.8%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & over 1.5	36.9%	34.9%	24.6%	1.42×	2.87
Roma & under 3.5	32.7%	30.8%	26.3%	1.17×	3.25
Roma & over 2.5	28.6%	26.1%	18.1%	1.44×	3.84
Lazio & under 3.5	20.2%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.63
Lazio & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	30.0%	0.60×	5.56
Roma & under 2.5	19.0%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.8%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Lazio & over 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Roma & over 3.5	14.9%	12.8%	7.4%	1.72×	7.79
Lazio & under 2.5	11.9%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Roma & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Lazio & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Lazio & over 3.5	7.1%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1UP)	62.4%	62.8%	50.4%	1.25×	1.59
Lazio (1UP)	44.8%	38.7%	55.3%	0.70×	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2UP)	47.5%	50.1%	36.1%	1.39×	2.00
Lazio (2UP)	27.3%	25.2%	41.9%	0.60×	3.98

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.6%	36.0%	35.1%	1.03×	2.78
Lazio to win 2nd half	35.1%	35.9%	34.9%	1.03×	2.78
Roma to win 2nd half	28.3%	25.9%	30.1%	0.86×	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.6%	84.4%	85.0%	0.99×	1.19
Roma over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	52.3%	50.1%	1.04×	1.91
Roma under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	47.7%	49.9%	0.96×	2.10
Roma over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.4%	15.7%	15.0%	1.04×	6.39

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.6%	82.4%	81.4%	1.01×	1.21
Lazio over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.5%	57.8%	53.8%	1.08×	1.73
Lazio under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.5%	42.2%	46.2%	0.91×	2.37
Lazio over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.4%	17.6%	18.6%	0.95×	5.67

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (+2.5)	96.8%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Roma (+1.5)	89.3%	88.5%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
Roma (+0.5)	72.7%	73.7%	59.9%	1.23×	1.36
Lazio (+0.5)	52.5%	52.4%	66.4%	0.79×	1.91
Roma (-0.5)	47.5%	47.6%	33.6%	1.42×	2.10
Lazio (-0.5)	27.3%	26.3%	40.1%	0.66×	3.80
Lazio (-1.5)	10.7%	11.5%	17.5%	0.66×	8.68
Lazio (-2.5)	3.2%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	27.10

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede	67.5%	72.3%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
Roma clean sheet	32.5%	27.7%	28.3%	0.98×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 1st half	73.0%	77.4%	57.9%	1.34×	1.29
Roma to concede in 1st half	27.0%	22.6%	42.1%	0.54×	4.43

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede in 2nd half	55.5%	57.1%	53.8%	1.06×	1.75
Roma clean sheet in 2nd half	44.5%	42.9%	46.2%	0.93×	2.33

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 6.5 corners	80.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Roma over 2.5 corners	74.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Roma under 5.5 corners	70.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Roma over 3.5 corners	58.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Roma under 4.5 corners	57.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Roma over 4.5 corners	42.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Roma under 3.5 corners	42.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Roma over 5.5 corners	29.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Roma under 2.5 corners	26.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Roma over 6.5 corners	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 3.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Roma under 2.5 goals	79.2%	76.3%	88.1%	0.87×	1.31
Roma over 0.5 goals	79.1%	76.3%	69.6%	1.10×	1.31
Roma under 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.5%	64.9%	0.82×	1.87
Roma over 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.5%	35.1%	1.33×	2.15
Roma under 0.5 goals	20.9%	23.7%	30.4%	0.78×	4.22
Roma over 2.5 goals	20.8%	23.7%	11.9%	2.00×	4.22
Roma over 3.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	2.9%	2.66×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 1st half	78.3%	75.4%	89.9%	0.84×	1.33
Roma over 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	62.0%	41.2%	1.51×	1.61
Roma under 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	38.0%	58.8%	0.65×	2.63
Roma over 1.5 in 1st half	21.7%	24.6%	10.1%	2.44×	4.06

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma scores more in 1st half	37.3%	37.4%	23.9%	1.56×	2.68
Roma scores equally in both	35.6%	37.3%	43.3%	0.86×	2.68
Roma scores more in 2nd half	27.1%	26.2%	32.9%	0.80×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (away no bet)	52.0%	51.7%	60.3%	0.86×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	48.0%	48.3%	39.7%	1.22×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma even goals	52.2%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Roma odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.3%	87.7%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.7%	12.3%	12.7%	0.97×	8.13

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.8%	57.8%	60.3%	0.96×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.2%	42.2%	39.7%	1.06×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.3%	55.1%	53.4%	1.03×	1.82
Roma to score 2+ in a row	38.3%	36.7%	27.7%	1.32×	2.73
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	22.8%	19.6%	31.8%	0.62×	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.6%	16.3%	17.9%	0.91×	6.14
Roma to score 3+ in a row	14.0%	12.1%	7.9%	1.53×	8.27
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	5.8%	5.5%	10.1%	0.55×	18.09

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma corners (+3.5)	87.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lazio corners (+3.5)	81.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Roma corners (+2.5)	80.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lazio corners (+2.5)	73.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Roma corners (+1.5)	71.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lazio corners (+1.5)	62.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Roma corners (-1.5)	37.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lazio corners (-1.5)	28.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Roma corners (-2.5)	27.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lazio corners (-2.5)	19.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Roma corners (-3.5)	18.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Lazio corners (-3.5)	12.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	56.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	18.1%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	81.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 7.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 8.5 corners	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	25.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	11.9%	0.97×	8.72
0-1	10.6%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
1-2	9.4%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.50
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	8.3%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
1-0	7.6%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
2-1	6.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
1-3	4.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.29
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.32
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
Any other score	2.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30
0-3	4.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.29
0-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-0	4.3%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	58.30
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
3-0	1.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2nd half DNB)	55.3%	59.5%	53.7%	1.11×	1.68
Roma (2nd half DNB)	44.7%	40.5%	46.3%	0.87×	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT (DNB)	78.8%	75.6%	48.8%	1.55×	1.32
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	21.2%	24.5%	51.2%	0.48×	4.09

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or Roma (12)	74.8%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Roma or draw (X2)	72.7%	72.1%	59.9%	1.20×	1.39
Lazio or draw (1X)	52.5%	52.6%	66.4%	0.79×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw at HT	87.2%	87.8%	71.5%	1.23×	1.14
Lazio or Roma at HT	60.5%	61.3%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63
Lazio or draw at HT	52.3%	47.8%	72.9%	0.66×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1UP)	72.7%	79.7%	65.4%	1.22×	1.26
Lazio or draw (1UP)	52.5%	58.7%	71.7%	0.82×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	71.7%	74.1%	69.9%	1.06×	1.35
Roma or draw in 2nd half	64.9%	64.1%	65.1%	0.98×	1.56
Lazio or Roma in 2nd half	63.4%	64.0%	64.9%	0.99×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.7%	61.5%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.3%	38.5%	36.5%	1.06×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (DNB)	63.5%	62.7%	45.6%	1.38×	1.59
Lazio (DNB)	36.5%	37.3%	54.4%	0.68×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score first	54.3%	53.4%	43.6%	1.23×	1.87
Lazio to score first	38.9%	32.8%	48.6%	0.68×	3.05
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.4%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.6%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.4%	41.6%	37.5%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.7%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.7%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.3%	14.4%	13.6%	1.06×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.3%	73.7%	74.8%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.7%	26.3%	25.2%	1.04×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.9%	65.5%	62.7%	1.05×	1.53
Both score 2nd half only	23.4%	21.3%	20.4%	1.05×	4.69
Both score 1st half only	11.3%	10.7%	12.2%	0.88×	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	4.9%	1.01×	20.16

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.3%	83.3%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.7%	16.7%	17.0%	0.98×	6.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.0%	52.9%	52.8%	1.00×	1.89
A half without a goal	46.0%	47.1%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	48.4%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.3%	26.6%	23.9%	1.11×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.1%	26.6%	27.0%	0.98×	3.76
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.30

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score exactly 1	32.7%	33.8%	34.7%	0.98×	2.96
Roma to score exactly 2	25.6%	27.4%	23.3%	1.17×	3.66
Roma to score exactly 0	20.9%	22.3%	30.4%	0.73×	4.49
Roma to score 3+	20.8%	22.3%	11.9%	1.88×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.6%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Lazio to score exactly 0	32.5%	32.6%	28.3%	1.15×	3.07
Lazio to score exactly 2	20.5%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Lazio to score 3+	10.4%	14.3%	15.1%	0.94×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT	47.7%	52.2%	27.1%	1.92×	1.92
Draw at HT	39.5%	38.7%	44.5%	0.87×	2.59
Lazio leading at HT	12.8%	12.2%	28.5%	0.43×	8.18

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma -1: 1	52.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Roma -1: 2	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Roma -1: X	23.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:1)	72.7%	71.1%	59.9%	1.19×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.6%	17.8%	22.7%	0.79×	5.61
Lazio (0:1)	10.7%	13.7%	17.5%	0.78×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:2)	89.3%	87.1%	82.5%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.4%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.04
Lazio (0:2)	3.2%	3.7%	7.7%	0.49×	26.68

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:3)	96.8%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.10
Lazio (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	82.03
Lazio (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1:0)	52.5%	54.0%	66.4%	0.81×	1.85
Roma (1:0)	24.4%	21.7%	14.4%	1.51×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	23.2%	21.7%	19.3%	1.12×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2:0)	75.6%	80.4%	85.6%	0.94×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	14.4%	10.3%	8.6%	1.19×	9.70
Roma (2:0)	9.9%	6.4%	5.9%	1.09×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.5%	44.8%	46.2%	0.97×	2.23
1st half highest scoring	30.0%	26.3%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81
Halves equal	25.5%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	79.1%	76.1%	69.6%	1.09×	1.31
Lazio clean sheet	20.9%	23.9%	30.4%	0.79×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede in 1st half	58.2%	62.0%	41.2%	1.51×	1.61
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	41.8%	38.0%	58.8%	0.65×	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede in 2nd half	50.0%	52.4%	50.1%	1.05×	1.91
Lazio clean sheet in 2nd half	50.0%	47.6%	49.9%	0.95×	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	85.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Lazio under 5.5 corners	76.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Lazio over 2.5 corners	68.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lazio under 4.5 corners	64.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Lazio over 3.5 corners	51.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lazio under 3.5 corners	48.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lazio over 4.5 corners	35.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Lazio under 2.5 corners	31.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lazio over 5.5 corners	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lazio over 6.5 corners	14.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	97.3%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Lazio under 2.5 goals	89.6%	87.3%	84.9%	1.03×	1.15
Lazio under 1.5 goals	69.1%	68.0%	60.3%	1.13×	1.47
Lazio over 0.5 goals	67.5%	68.0%	71.7%	0.95×	1.47
Lazio under 0.5 goals	32.5%	32.0%	28.3%	1.13×	3.12
Lazio over 1.5 goals	30.9%	32.0%	39.7%	0.81×	3.12
Lazio over 2.5 goals	10.4%	12.7%	15.1%	0.84×	7.86
Lazio over 3.5 goals	2.7%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.54

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	96.0%	96.8%	89.3%	1.08×	1.03
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	73.0%	79.2%	57.9%	1.37×	1.26
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	27.0%	20.8%	42.1%	0.49×	4.81
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	4.0%	3.2%	10.7%	0.30×	31.05

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio scores more in 2nd half	45.1%	46.9%	36.3%	1.29×	2.13
Lazio scores equally in both	41.3%	42.2%	41.7%	1.01×	2.37
Lazio scores more in 1st half	13.5%	13.5%	22.2%	0.61×	7.39

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (home no bet)	65.4%	64.0%	56.0%	1.14×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	34.6%	36.0%	44.0%	0.82×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	55.3%	55.2%	56.2%	0.98×	1.81
Lazio odd goals	44.7%	44.8%	43.8%	1.02×	2.23

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.5%	33.1%	33.7%	0.98×	3.03
HT 0-1	26.6%	28.2%	18.1%	1.56×	3.54
HT 0-2	11.6%	11.0%	5.4%	2.03×	9.12
HT 1-0	9.6%	6.9%	18.5%	0.37×	14.44
HT 1-1	8.4%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.46
Any other HT score	6.2%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.49
HT 1-2	3.6%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.06
HT 2-0	1.5%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.20
HT 2-1	1.3%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.21
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma at HT / Roma at FT	35.4%	41.2%	19.1%	2.16×	2.43
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.5%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.89
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	13.9%	12.7%	15.8%	0.80×	7.89
Draw at HT / Roma at FT	11.2%	12.6%	12.8%	0.98×	7.91
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	9.6%	6.0%	22.1%	0.27×	16.55
Roma at HT / Draw at FT	8.4%	6.0%	5.9%	1.03×	16.58
Roma at HT / Lazio at FT	3.9%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.65
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	2.3%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.70
Lazio at HT / Roma at FT	0.9%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.76

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score last	54.3%	52.2%	44.1%	1.19×	1.91
Lazio to score last	38.9%	38.8%	48.1%	0.81×	2.58
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Roma to lead by 1 at any time	62.4%	61.4%	50.4%	1.22×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.3%	44.5%	43.7%	1.02×	2.25
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	44.8%	39.2%	55.3%	0.71×	2.55
Roma to lead by 2 at any time	30.7%	29.8%	20.2%	1.48×	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.6%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.70
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	24.0%	0.62×	6.71
Roma to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	6.5%	1.61×	9.57
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	4.5%	1.7%	8.8%	0.19×	60.41

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma most corners	48.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Lazio most corners	39.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.9%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.3%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.9%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.3%	48.5%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.8%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.9%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.8%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.3%	30.2%	23.9%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.8%	24.5%	21.8%	1.12×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.5%	14.8%	10.7%	1.39×	6.75
7+ goals	2.0%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma never behind	48.4%	56.8%	44.7%	1.27×	1.76
Lazio never behind	30.8%	36.1%	49.6%	0.73×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.5%	87.6%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.7%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.3%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.7%	47.5%	51.9%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.3%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	27.0%	1.02×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.5%	12.4%	11.5%	1.08×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.1%	81.1%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.7%	67.4%	64.1%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.7%	61.9%	67.7%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.3%	38.1%	32.3%	1.18×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.3%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.9%	18.9%	13.3%	1.42×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.1%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.3%	89.2%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.5%	68.6%	66.3%	1.04×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.8%	68.6%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.2%	31.4%	29.9%	1.05×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.5%	31.4%	33.7%	0.93×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.7%	10.8%	8.8%	1.23×	9.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	83.2%	82.4%	1.01×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	79.1%	78.6%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.7%	54.8%	56.9%	0.96×	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.3%	45.2%	43.1%	1.05×	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	20.9%	21.4%	0.98×	4.79
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	16.8%	17.6%	0.95×	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to score in both halves	85.0%	85.4%	75.8%	1.13×	1.17
Roma not to score in both halves	70.9%	73.8%	78.4%	0.94×	1.36
Roma to score in both halves	29.1%	26.2%	21.6%	1.21×	3.82
Lazio to score in both halves	15.0%	14.6%	24.3%	0.60×	6.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.4%	53.9%	49.2%	1.09×	1.86
Only Roma scores	25.7%	26.0%	20.5%	1.27×	3.84
Only Lazio scores	14.1%	11.0%	22.6%	0.49×	9.06
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.6%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.3%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.54×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	36.5%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.5%	35.8%	33.7%	1.06×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.5%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.7%	10.7%	8.8%	1.22×	9.33

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.3%	45.6%	43.1%	1.06×	2.19
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.9%	35.7%	0.95×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.3%	22.9%	21.4%	1.07×	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to win both halves	95.5%	97.1%	89.9%	1.08×	1.03
Roma not to win both halves	86.5%	87.9%	91.1%	0.96×	1.14
Roma to win both halves	13.5%	12.1%	8.9%	1.36×	8.28
Lazio to win both halves	4.5%	2.9%	10.1%	0.28×	34.98

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win either half	62.5%	65.1%	48.4%	1.35×	1.54
Lazio to win neither half	56.6%	59.1%	46.7%	1.27×	1.69
Lazio to win either half	43.4%	40.9%	53.3%	0.77×	2.45
Roma to win neither half	37.5%	34.9%	51.6%	0.68×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to win to nil	85.9%	88.1%	77.4%	1.14×	1.14
Roma not to win to nil	74.3%	75.4%	79.5%	0.95×	1.33
Roma to win to nil	25.7%	24.6%	20.5%	1.20×	4.06
Lazio to win to nil	14.1%	11.9%	22.6%	0.53×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.2%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Roma by 1	23.2%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.15
Lazio by 1	16.6%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87
Roma by 2	14.4%	11.8%	8.6%	1.36×	8.50
Roma by 3+	9.9%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.90
Lazio by 2	7.4%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.91
Lazio by 3+	3.2%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.80