Lazio v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 9 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.54 – +0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
40.9%
Draw
28.4%
Sassuolo win
30.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–1.08 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 2.54 xGSassuolo 0.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.77 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 1' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 11' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edoardo Motta |
| 15' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 16' |
Lazio |
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 24' |
 Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ulisses García |
| 34' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 58' |
Lazio |
Kenneth Taylor | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 61' |
Lazio |
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 77' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Gila |
| 79' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Sassuolo |
Josh Doig | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fisayo Dele-Bashiru |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Oliver Provstgaard | 0.46 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 91' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Goal | Matteo Cancellieri |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.56 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.48 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| Edoardo Motta GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.79 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Daniel Maldini FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Patric Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Cancellieri Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Pedro Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.35 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Ulisses García DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nemanja Matic Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darryl Bakola Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |