Lazio v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 10 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 15
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.65 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.02 – -0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
53.3%
Draw
25.9%
Udinese win
20.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 12 from 12.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWDWLLWWWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.96–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.02 xGUdinese 1.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Udinese |
Lorenzo Lucca | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 9' |
 Lazio |
Matías Vecino | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 19' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.70 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lorenzo Lucca |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Lorenzo Lucca | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Lazio |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 30' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.64 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Matías Vecino |
| 31' |
Lazio |
Matías Vecino | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 36' |
Lazio |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Lazzari |
| 42' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Lorenzo Lucca | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Thiesson Kristensen |
| 47' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 53' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 67' |
Udinese |
Martín Payero | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 75' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 75' |
Udinese |
Jordan Zemura | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Gila |
| 83' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Jordan Zemura | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Lucca FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.70 | 0.89 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Florian Thauvin FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Sandi Lovric MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Atta Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jordan Zemura Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Keinan Davis Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rui Modesto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mattia Zaccagni AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Adam Marusic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Matteo Guendouzi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Gustav Isaksen AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Matías Vecino DMC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.12 |
| Boulaye Dia AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Loum Tchaouna FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Reda Belahyane Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Patric Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |