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Lazio v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 August 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

3–1
2.33 – 0.79 xG
Shots
13 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.82 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.67 – +0.21
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Magnus Kofod Andersen 2' — goalValentín Castellanos 10' — goalMattia Zaccagni 43' — goal
Lazio 2.33 xGVenezia 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Magnus Kofod Andersen 2' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 10' — Goal (0.29 xG, Open Play)Richie Sagrado 12' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 14' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mikael Ellertsson 21' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mattia Zaccagni 22' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Francesco Zampano 29' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 37' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Mattia Zaccagni 43' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Adam Marusic 44' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 44' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Christian Gytkjær 47' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nicolò Casale 51' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Valentín Castellanos 54' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mattia Zaccagni 55' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ridgeciano Haps 56' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Alfred Duncan 62' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ridgeciano Haps 69' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 78' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ridgeciano Haps 78' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Giorgio Altare 80' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 84' — Shot On Post (0.30 xG, Open Play)Loum Tchaouna 88' — Missed Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Nicholas Pierini 91' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Giorgio Altare 92' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)
Lazio attacking right Venezia attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Venezia Magnus Kofod Andersen 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mikael Ellertsson
10' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Goal
12' Venezia Richie Sagrado 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Magnus Kofod Andersen
14' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.02 Open Play Saved Shot Adam Marusic
21' Venezia Mikael Ellertsson 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Christian Gytkjær
22' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolo Rovella
29' Venezia Francesco Zampano 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Michael Svoboda
37' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.32 Open Play Missed Shot Tijjani Noslin
43' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.76 Right Foot Goal
44' Lazio Adam Marusic 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mattia Zaccagni
44' Lazio Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
47' Venezia Christian Gytkjær 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gaetano Oristanio
51' Lazio Nicolò Casale 0.06 From Corner Saved Shot Mattia Zaccagni
54' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
55' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
56' Venezia Ridgeciano Haps 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mikael Ellertsson
62' Venezia Alfred Duncan 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mikael Ellertsson
69' Venezia Ridgeciano Haps 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
78' Lazio Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Loum Tchaouna
78' Venezia Ridgeciano Haps 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
80' Venezia Giorgio Altare 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
84' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Loum Tchaouna
88' Lazio Loum Tchaouna 0.27 Open Play Missed Shot Gaetano Castrovilli
91' Venezia Nicholas Pierini 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
92' Venezia Giorgio Altare 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Nicholas Pierini

Players

Lazio

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.04 0.50
Nicolò Casale DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.44
Adam Marusic DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.43
Alessio Romagnoli DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Ivan Provedel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Manuel Lazzari DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Valentín Castellanos FW 89 1 0 5 0 0.97 0.00 1.00
Matteo Guendouzi MC 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Mattia Zaccagni FWL 79 1 0 3 2 0.88 0.08 0.20
Tijjani Noslin FWR 79 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.32 0.35
Nicolo Rovella MC 67 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.41
Matías Vecino Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Loum Tchaouna Sub 11 0 0 1 2 0.27 0.34 0.61
Gustav Isaksen Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedro Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gaetano Castrovilli Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.27 0.27

Venezia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Giorgio Altare DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.12
Francesco Zampano DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.06
Alfred Duncan MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.11
Marin Sverko DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Michael Svoboda DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.15
Jesse Joronen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Christian Gytkjær FW 88 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.07
Magnus Kofod Andersen MC 88 1 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.17
Mikael Ellertsson AMC 72 0 1 1 3 0.02 0.16 0.27
Richie Sagrado DMR 55 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Gaetano Oristanio AMC 55 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Ridgeciano Haps Sub 35 0 0 3 0 0.51 0.00 0.51
Nicholas Pierini Sub 35 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.03 0.09
Domen Crnigoj Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Raimondo Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nunzio Lella Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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