Le Havre v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.57 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.12 – +0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
41.6%
Draw
26.9%
Angers win
31.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.18–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.51–0.98 | 1-0 13% | 45% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 1.88 xGAngers 0.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 3' |
 Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Florent Hanin |
| 8' |
Le Havre |
Gautier Lloris | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 12' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Mambimbi |
| 12' |
Le Havre |
Yanis Zouaoui | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Le Havre |
Kenny Quetant | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 25' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 27' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 41' |
Le Havre |
Ayumu Seko | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 41' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 41' |
Le Havre |
Kenny Quetant | 0.54 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carlens Arcus |
| 63' |
Angers |
Marius Courcoul | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 71' |
Angers |
Carlens Arcus | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Le Havre |
Enzo Koffi | 0.31 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 80' |
Le Havre |
Noam Obougou | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 85' |
Angers |
Marius Courcoul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Prosper Peter |
| 87' |
Le Havre |
Noam Obougou | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Godson Kyeremeh |
| 90' |
Angers |
Abdoulaye Bamba | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 95' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Paul Argney GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.04 |
| Kenny Quetant FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Felix Mambimbi AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Yassine Kechta MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Simon Ebonog DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daren Mosengo Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Enzo Koffi Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noam Obougou Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Godson Kyeremeh Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidiki Chérif FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Marius Courcoul DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Melvin Zinga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.54 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Florent Hanin DL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jacques Ekomie Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |