Le Havre v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 1.06
Goals − xG
+0.29 – -1.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
40.4%
Draw
29.4%
Auxerre win
30.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.12 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 47% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 0.71 xGAuxerre 2.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 3' |
 Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Ebonog |
| 4' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Gautier Lloris |
| 13' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 14' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Danny Namaso |
| 17' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 22' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Issa Soumaré |
| 35' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Romain Faivre |
| 37' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 48' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Gourna Douath |
| 55' |
Le Havre |
Lucas Gourna Douath | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 57' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 63' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fredrik Oppegård |
| 65' |
Auxerre |
Bryan Okoh | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Romain Faivre |
| 65' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.47 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 71' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 83' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.49 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 86' |
Le Havre |
Godson Kyeremeh | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassoul Ndiaye FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Loïc Négo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.51 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.02 | 0.56 |
| Sofiane Boufal FWL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| Mbwana Samatta Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Godson Kyeremeh Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Timothee Pembele Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Danny Namaso AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| Romain Faivre AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Elisha Owusu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Kévin Danois DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Théo De Percin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Fredrik Oppegård AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |