Le Havre v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-1.29 – +0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
25.9%
Draw
25.1%
Lens win
48.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.22–1.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–1.88 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 2.29 xGLens 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 2' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.74 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 8' |
 Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 10' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yassine Kechta |
| 13' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Le Havre |
Ayumu Seko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 24' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 37' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Issa Soumaré |
| 39' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Wesley Said |
| 42' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 42' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mbwana Samatta |
| 46' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arouna Sangante |
| 46' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 47' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 49' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 63' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 79' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 89' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 96' |
Le Havre |
Yanis Zouaoui | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 97' |
Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mory Diaw |
| 97' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.48 | 0.25 | 1.66 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.54 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| Ayumu Seko DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Yassine Kechta MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| Fodé Doucouré MR | 66 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.17 | 1.14 | 1.59 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Abdoulaye Touré Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Younes Namli Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Mambimbi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Ebonog Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Godson Kyeremeh Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Said AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Matthieu Udol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Rayan Fofana FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Fodé Sylla MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mamadou Sangaré Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |