Le Havre v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.64 – -1.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
25.1%
Draw
26.8%
Lyon win
48.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDDLWLD last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 14
from 18.0 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–1.65 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 0.64 xGLyon 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lyon |
Endrick | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 5' |
 Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Enzo Koffi |
| 6' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Le Havre |
Lucas Gourna Douath | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mbwana Samatta |
| 11' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 25' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 29' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stephan Zagadou |
| 34' |
Le Havre |
Enzo Koffi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 50' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 51' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 54' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 63' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Sofiane Boufal |
| 63' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 66' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 75' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 77' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 80' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Adil Hamdani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Ayumu Seko DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sofiane Boufal MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Enzo Koffi DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Stephan Zagadou DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| Yassine Kechta Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yanis Zouaoui Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Quetant Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Morton DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Abner AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| Corentin Tolisso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Tanner Tessmann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Remy Descamps GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Endrick FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.06 | 0.77 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.54 |
| Hans Hateboer DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Orel Mangala DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Adam Karabec AMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Roman Yaremchuk Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Noah Nartey Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adil Hamdani Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rachid Ghezzal Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Steeve Kango Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |