Le Havre v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 7
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.96 – 0.90
Goals − xG
-1.24 – -0.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
22.0%
Draw
23.4%
Marseille win
54.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–1.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–2.04 | 1-2 10% | 64% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 1.24 xGMarseille 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 7' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 30' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 30' |
Marseille |
Tochukwu Nnadi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Le Havre |
Lucas Gourna Douath | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 51' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 59' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 65' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 70' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.76 | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 83' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Facundo Medina |
| 90' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassine Kechta |
| 90' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nouhoum Kamissoko |
| 98' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Issa Soumaré AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arouna Sangante DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sofiane Boufal AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Fodé Doucouré AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Simon Ebonog Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Timothee Pembele Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Koffi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yassine Kechta Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Paixão AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Benjamin Pavard DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| Mason Greenwood AMR | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Quinten Timber AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tochukwu Nnadi DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ange Lago Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ugo El Kadmiri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |