Le Havre v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 5
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 2
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.02 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
43.3%
Draw
24.7%
Nantes win
32.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.75–1.16 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 0.98 xGNantes 0.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Mambimbi |
| 3' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Goal | Kelvin Adou |
| 5' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yassine Kechta |
| 11' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 14' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gautier Lloris |
| 16' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bahereba Guirassy |
| 16' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 18' |
Le Havre |
Arouna Sangante | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 18' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yassine Kechta |
| 22' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Mambimbi |
| 27' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 50' |
Le Havre |
Ayumu Seko | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Yassine Kechta |
| 73' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayumu Seko |
| 76' |
Le Havre |
Reda Khadra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 82' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Godson Kyeremeh |
| 88' |
Le Havre |
Younes Namli | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Reda Khadra |
| 89' |
Le Havre |
Reda Khadra | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Nantes |
Chidozie Awaziem | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Le Havre |
Gautier Lloris | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Fodé Doucouré |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ayumu Seko DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Abdoulaye Touré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Yassine Kechta MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| Felix Mambimbi FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Reda Khadra Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Fodé Doucouré Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Younes Namli Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Godson Kyeremeh Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Leroux DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrik Carlgren GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Matthis Abline FWL | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| Bahereba Guirassy FWR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| Bahmed Deuff Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassine Benhattab Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabien Centonze Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |