Le Havre v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 14
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.28 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-1.93 – -1.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
42.0%
Draw
23.8%
Paris FC win
34.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWLWDWW last 10
scored 21
from 22.2 xG
conceded 9
from 11.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.41–1.30 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 1.93 xGParis FC 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 5' |
 Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 8' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 10' |
Paris FC |
Tuomas Ollila | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 11' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 27' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Paris FC |
Tuomas Ollila | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Moses Simon |
| 39' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 55' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 55' |
Paris FC |
Adama Camara | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 55' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 57' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mbwana Samatta |
| 62' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 63' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 70' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 72' |
Paris FC |
Nouha Dicko | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 78' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 80' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Ikone |
| 86' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 87' |
Le Havre |
Younes Namli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 92' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassine Kechta |
| 92' |
Paris FC |
Nouha Dicko | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adama Camara |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.13 | 0.49 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ayumu Seko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Godson Kyeremeh FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassine Kechta Sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noam Obougou Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fodé Doucouré Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Étienne Youté Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Younes Namli Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilan Kebbal MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.64 |
| Adama Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Maxime Lopez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.94 |
| Hamari Traore DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Otávio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Tuomas Ollila DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Moses Simon ML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Vincent Marchetti MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alimami Gory Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Jonathan Ikone Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.72 |
| Nouha Dicko Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Thibault De Smet Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Timothée Kolodziejczak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |