Le Havre v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.37
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +1.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
29.6%
Draw
24.8%
Rennes win
45.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 0.72 xGRennes 3.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Rennes |
Azor Matusiwa | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 3' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 6' |
 Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 14' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.96 | Open Play | — | Goal | Azor Matusiwa |
| 14' |
Rennes |
Azor Matusiwa | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 39' |
Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Le Havre |
Junior Mwanga | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Le Havre |
André Ayew | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Touré |
| 48' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 51' |
Le Havre |
Josué Casimir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassine Kechta |
| 52' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Seko Fofana |
| 56' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.76 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 59' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 73' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan James |
| 83' |
Le Havre |
Koka | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Touré |
| 88' |
Rennes |
Andrés Gómez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Azor Matusiwa |
| 93' |
Le Havre |
Junior Mwanga | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Mwanga DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Issa Soumaré AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Abdoulaye Touré DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| Josué Casimir AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yassine Kechta AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Mathieu Gorgelin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| André Ayew FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Timothee Pembele DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Koka Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Fode Toure Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mahamadou Diawara Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yanis Zouaoui Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ilyes Housni Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azor Matusiwa MC | 90 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 1.05 | 2.15 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrien Truffert DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 86 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 2.64 |
| Mousa Al Tamari FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 2.08 |
| Seko Fofana MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 0.63 |
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Jordan James Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Hans Hateboer Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrés Gómez Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ismaël Koné Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kyogo Furuhashi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |