Le Havre v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 9
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.02 – +0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
37.4%
Draw
22.2%
Rennes win
40.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 1.98 xGRennes 1.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 9' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Esteban Lepaul |
| 16' |
 Le Havre |
Felix Mambimbi | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Younes Namli |
| 19' |
Rennes |
Alidu Seidu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 19' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 28' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 41' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 49' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 56' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayumu Seko |
| 64' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 78' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Godson Kyeremeh |
| 86' |
Le Havre |
Godson Kyeremeh | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 88' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 91' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 92' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 93' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.35 | 0.74 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 0.76 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Ayumu Seko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Younes Namli FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Felix Mambimbi FWL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Godson Kyeremeh Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.78 |
| Fodé Doucouré Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Damián Pizarro Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassine Kechta Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Enzo Koffi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breel Embolo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.56 | 0.97 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Alidu Seidu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Seko Fofana Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mousa Al Tamari Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.09 |