Le Havre v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 9
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.14 – +0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
27.9%
Draw
23.5%
Strasbourg win
48.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.8 xG
conceded 13
from 17.8 xG
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.99–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.57 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 0.86 xGStrasbourg 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 5' |
 Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 5' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 8' |
Le Havre |
Arouna Sangante | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 17' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Gourna Douath |
| 25' |
Le Havre |
Stephan Zagadou | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Goal | Sofiane Boufal |
| 32' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 39' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 39' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 40' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Enzo Koffi |
| 43' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 43' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Ebonog |
| 46' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 47' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stephan Zagadou |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arouna Sangante |
| 64' |
Le Havre |
Loïc Négo | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arouna Sangante |
| 69' |
Le Havre |
Timothee Pembele | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 70' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 78' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw |
| 87' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 90' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 91' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| Stephan Zagadou DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.26 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Sofiane Boufal FWL | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| Fodé Doucouré FWR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Enzo Koffi DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Timothee Pembele Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mbwana Samatta Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yassine Kechta Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Gautier Lloris Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daren Mosengo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Moreira AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Valentín Barco DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Martial Godo AML | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Junior Mwanga DR | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Sebastian Nanasi Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.20 |