Lecce v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Lecce

13:00 UTC

Bologna

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 797h before kick-off

Lecce win

26.5%

model 27.6%

Draw

26.4%

model 26.1%

Bologna win

47.1%

model 46.3%

262647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.4%
0-1 11.6%
1-2 9.1%
0-2 8.5%
1-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.7%	Under 2.5	53.3%
BTTS yes	50.7%	BTTS no	49.3%
Lecce 1+	65.8%	Lecce 2+	29.1%
Bologna 1+	77.0%	Bologna 2+	43.2%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

89/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Bologna or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 61%

72.4% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1768 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lecce not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 77%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1047 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bologna carry the stronger rating, 1535 Elo against 1456.
Bologna have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.12.
Away from home Bologna average 1.17 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bologna have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for Lecce and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.07 for Lecce and 1.47 for Bologna.

Why Lecce

Lecce have created 1.31 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.08. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Lecce average 1.24 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Bologna can win

Bologna carry the stronger rating, 1535 Elo against 1456. Bologna have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.12. Away from home Bologna average 1.17 xG a match.

Key players

Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.26), Nikola Stulic (0.24). Bologna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Roberto Piccoli (0.39), Santiago Castro (0.30), Jonathan Rowe (0.27).

Availability

2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Bologna's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Bologna's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lecce: 36% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Bologna: 56% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Bologna are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDDWLWWWLL last 10 scored 9 from 13.1 xG conceded 12 from 21.2 xG

Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLDWWDLLD last 10 scored 11 from 14.7 xG conceded 13 from 10.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	282646	1.07–1.47	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	222652	0.92–1.56	0-1 13%	45%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to win	46.3%	49.1%	34.0%	1.45×	2.04
Lecce to win	27.6%	27.6%	39.4%	0.70×	3.62
Draw	26.1%	27.6%	26.8%	1.03×	3.63

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna & not both score	26.3%	26.3%	20.8%	1.26×	3.80
Bologna & both teams score	19.9%	17.8%	13.3%	1.34×	5.63
Draw & both teams score	18.2%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Lecce & not both score	15.1%	17.7%	22.6%	0.78×	5.64
Lecce & both teams score	12.5%	12.2%	16.9%	0.72×	8.23
Draw & not both score	7.9%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.66

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna & over 1.5	34.7%	33.2%	24.6%	1.35×	3.01
Bologna & under 3.5	33.3%	33.2%	26.6%	1.24×	3.02
Bologna & over 2.5	26.2%	25.5%	18.1%	1.41×	3.92
Lecce & under 3.5	21.2%	21.5%	29.4%	0.73×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	20.3%	21.5%	19.9%	1.08×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	20.3%	21.5%	19.9%	1.08×	4.65
Bologna & under 2.5	20.1%	21.5%	16.0%	1.34×	4.65
Lecce & over 1.5	19.2%	17.6%	29.0%	0.61×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.2%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Lecce & over 2.5	14.6%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.86
Lecce & under 2.5	13.0%	12.7%	17.0%	0.75×	7.86
Bologna & over 3.5	12.9%	12.7%	7.4%	1.71×	7.86
Bologna & under 1.5	11.6%	12.7%	9.5%	1.34×	7.87
Lecce & under 1.5	8.4%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.40
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Lecce & over 3.5	6.4%	7.5%	10.1%	0.74×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (1UP)	60.7%	63.8%	51.1%	1.25×	1.57
Lecce (1UP)	44.3%	43.5%	54.7%	0.80×	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (2UP)	46.3%	49.5%	36.5%	1.36×	2.02
Lecce (2UP)	27.6%	30.7%	41.0%	0.75×	3.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.2%	37.5%	35.9%	1.05×	2.67
Bologna to win 2nd half	35.3%	37.4%	29.5%	1.27×	2.67
Lecce to win 2nd half	26.4%	27.4%	34.7%	0.79×	3.65

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (+2.5)	96.9%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Bologna (+1.5)	89.5%	89.1%	83.0%	1.07×	1.12
Bologna (+0.5)	72.4%	73.1%	60.6%	1.21×	1.37
Lecce (+0.5)	53.7%	51.7%	66.0%	0.78×	1.94
Bologna (-0.5)	46.3%	48.3%	34.0%	1.42×	2.07
Lecce (-0.5)	27.6%	26.9%	39.4%	0.68×	3.71
Lecce (-1.5)	10.5%	10.9%	17.0%	0.64×	9.14
Lecce (-2.5)	3.1%	2.8%	7.6%	0.38×	35.19

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to concede	65.8%	71.0%	71.1%	1.00×	1.41
Bologna clean sheet	34.2%	29.0%	28.9%	1.00×	3.45

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna clean sheet in 1st half	63.8%	60.7%	58.8%	1.03×	1.65
Bologna to concede in 1st half	36.2%	39.3%	41.2%	0.96×	2.54

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna over 2.5 corners	79.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Bologna under 6.5 corners	74.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bologna over 3.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bologna under 5.5 corners	63.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bologna over 4.5 corners	50.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Bologna under 4.5 corners	49.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Bologna over 5.5 corners	36.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bologna under 3.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bologna over 6.5 corners	25.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bologna under 2.5 corners	20.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 3.5 goals	93.8%	92.7%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Bologna under 2.5 goals	81.7%	82.2%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Bologna over 0.5 goals	77.0%	75.3%	69.3%	1.09×	1.33
Bologna under 1.5 goals	56.8%	57.6%	65.4%	0.88×	1.74
Bologna over 1.5 goals	43.2%	42.4%	34.6%	1.22×	2.36
Bologna under 0.5 goals	23.0%	24.7%	30.7%	0.81×	4.04
Bologna over 2.5 goals	18.3%	17.8%	11.6%	1.53×	5.61
Bologna over 3.5 goals	6.2%	7.3%	2.9%	2.52×	13.65

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 1.5 in 1st half	84.5%	81.3%	90.2%	0.90×	1.23
Bologna over 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	50.7%	41.0%	1.24×	1.97
Bologna under 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	49.3%	59.0%	0.84×	2.03
Bologna over 1.5 in 1st half	15.5%	18.7%	9.8%	1.89×	5.36

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (away no bet)	51.4%	51.3%	59.5%	0.86×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	48.6%	48.7%	40.5%	1.20×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna even goals	52.6%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Bologna odd goals	47.4%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.1%	86.4%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.9%	13.6%	12.8%	1.07×	7.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.5%	56.0%	59.6%	0.94×	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.5%	44.0%	40.4%	1.09×	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.3%	52.9%	52.8%	1.00×	1.89
Bologna to score 2+ in a row	35.7%	37.2%	27.7%	1.35×	2.69
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	21.7%	21.8%	31.1%	0.70×	4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	17.8%	17.3%	1.03×	5.61
Bologna to score 3+ in a row	12.5%	12.2%	7.7%	1.58×	8.20
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.73

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna corners (+3.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Bologna corners (+2.5)	79.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lecce corners (+3.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lecce corners (+2.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Bologna corners (+1.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lecce corners (+1.5)	61.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Bologna corners (-1.5)	38.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Lecce corners (-1.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Bologna corners (-2.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lecce corners (-2.5)	20.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Bologna corners (-3.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Lecce corners (-3.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	26.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	35.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	34.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	26.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	19.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.4%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.63
0-1	11.6%	11.6%	9.5%	1.22×	8.64
1-2	9.1%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
0-2	8.5%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.74
1-0	8.4%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.74
0-0	7.9%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.74
2-1	6.7%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.75
2-2	4.9%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.39
0-3	4.2%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.40
1-3	4.5%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.40
2-0	4.5%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.40
0-4	1.5%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.47
1-4	1.6%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.47
2-3	2.4%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.45
3-0	1.6%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.47
3-1	2.4%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.45
3-2	1.7%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.47
Any other score	2.2%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.45
2-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
3-3	0.9%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-0	0.4%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.50
4-1	0.6%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.49
4-2	0.5%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna leading at HT (DNB)	63.9%	65.3%	49.9%	1.31×	1.53
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	36.1%	34.7%	50.1%	0.69×	2.88

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce or Bologna (12)	73.9%	72.4%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Bologna or draw (X2)	72.4%	72.4%	60.6%	1.19×	1.38
Lecce or draw (1X)	53.7%	50.9%	66.0%	0.77×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna or draw at HT	79.2%	78.8%	72.5%	1.09×	1.27
Lecce or draw at HT	63.3%	63.2%	72.6%	0.87×	1.58
Lecce or Bologna at HT	57.5%	58.2%	54.8%	1.06×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna or draw (1UP)	72.4%	77.4%	66.3%	1.17×	1.29
Lecce or draw (1UP)	53.7%	58.8%	71.3%	0.82×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna or draw in 2nd half	73.6%	72.6%	65.3%	1.11×	1.38
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	64.7%	62.6%	70.5%	0.89×	1.60
Lecce or Bologna in 2nd half	61.8%	62.5%	64.1%	0.97×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.5%	59.5%	64.4%	0.92×	1.68
Neither half drawn	35.5%	40.5%	35.6%	1.14×	2.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (DNB)	62.6%	62.4%	46.3%	1.35×	1.60
Lecce (DNB)	37.4%	37.6%	53.7%	0.70×	2.66

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to score first	53.3%	53.7%	44.2%	1.22×	1.86
Lecce to score first	38.9%	37.3%	47.7%	0.78×	2.68
No goal scored	7.9%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.96

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.6%	52.8%	48.6%	1.09×	1.89
Not both teams to score	49.4%	47.2%	51.4%	0.92×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.9%	42.2%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	38.2%	37.5%	36.9%	1.02×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.4%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.46

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.4%	85.5%	86.9%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.6%	14.5%	13.1%	1.10×	6.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.1%	73.7%	74.7%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.9%	26.3%	25.3%	1.04×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.4%	59.4%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	20.4%	24.3%	20.5%	1.19×	4.11
Both score 1st half only	13.7%	11.6%	11.7%	0.99×	8.63
Both score in both halves	4.5%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.8%	83.2%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.2%	16.8%	16.5%	1.02×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.3%	54.6%	51.8%	1.06×	1.83
A half without a goal	48.7%	45.4%	48.2%	0.94×	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
0-1 goals	27.9%	27.7%	27.9%	0.99×	3.61
4-6 goals	23.6%	22.8%	23.5%	0.97×	4.38
7+ goals	1.5%	1.9%	0.9%	2.19×	51.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to score exactly 1	33.8%	33.3%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
Bologna to score exactly 2	24.8%	24.0%	23.1%	1.04×	4.16
Bologna to score exactly 0	23.0%	24.0%	30.7%	0.78×	4.17
Bologna to score 3+	18.3%	18.4%	11.6%	1.58×	5.44

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
Lecce to score exactly 0	34.2%	30.6%	28.9%	1.06×	3.27
Lecce to score exactly 2	19.7%	18.6%	24.6%	0.75×	5.39
Lecce to score 3+	9.4%	8.1%	14.4%	0.56×	12.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.5%	41.8%	45.2%	0.92×	2.39
Bologna leading at HT	36.7%	36.8%	27.4%	1.34×	2.72
Lecce leading at HT	20.8%	21.2%	27.5%	0.77×	4.72

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna -1: 1	53.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Bologna -1: X	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Bologna -1: 2	22.9%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:1)	72.4%	68.7%	60.6%	1.13×	1.46
Draw (0:1)	17.1%	18.3%	22.5%	0.81×	5.47
Lecce (0:1)	10.5%	10.6%	17.0%	0.62×	9.48

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:2)	89.5%	89.8%	83.0%	1.08×	1.11
Draw (0:2)	7.4%	7.2%	9.6%	0.75×	13.93
Lecce (0:2)	3.1%	3.0%	7.6%	0.40×	33.21

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:3)	96.9%	97.1%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.08
Lecce (0:3)	0.7%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.43

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.05
Lecce (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.28

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (1:0)	53.7%	48.9%	66.0%	0.74×	2.05
Draw (1:0)	23.4%	23.0%	19.9%	1.15×	4.36
Bologna (1:0)	22.9%	22.9%	14.1%	1.62×	4.36

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (2:0)	77.1%	77.7%	85.9%	0.90×	1.29
Draw (2:0)	13.9%	12.2%	8.5%	1.44×	8.22
Bologna (2:0)	8.9%	6.6%	5.8%	1.14×	15.07

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.5%	49.3%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03
Halves equal	26.5%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	31.0%	25.5%	26.8%	0.95×	3.92

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	77.0%	77.2%	69.3%	1.11×	1.30
Lecce clean sheet	23.0%	22.8%	30.7%	0.74×	4.39

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	50.3%	50.7%	41.0%	1.24×	1.97
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	49.7%	49.3%	59.0%	0.84×	2.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 6.5 corners	80.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lecce over 2.5 corners	74.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lecce under 5.5 corners	70.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lecce over 3.5 corners	58.2%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Lecce under 4.5 corners	57.4%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Lecce over 4.5 corners	42.6%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Lecce under 3.5 corners	41.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Lecce over 5.5 corners	29.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lecce under 2.5 corners	25.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lecce over 6.5 corners	19.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	97.6%	97.8%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Lecce under 2.5 goals	90.6%	92.0%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Lecce under 1.5 goals	70.9%	72.7%	61.1%	1.19×	1.38
Lecce over 0.5 goals	65.8%	68.7%	71.1%	0.97×	1.46
Lecce under 0.5 goals	34.2%	31.3%	28.9%	1.08×	3.20
Lecce over 1.5 goals	29.1%	27.3%	38.9%	0.70×	3.66
Lecce over 2.5 goals	9.4%	8.0%	14.4%	0.55×	12.56
Lecce over 3.5 goals	2.4%	2.2%	4.5%	0.49×	44.58

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	92.5%	93.1%	90.2%	1.03×	1.07
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	63.8%	60.5%	58.8%	1.03×	1.65
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	36.2%	39.5%	41.2%	0.96×	2.53
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	7.5%	6.9%	9.8%	0.70×	14.56

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (home no bet)	63.9%	61.6%	55.9%	1.10×	1.62
Draw (home no bet)	36.1%	38.4%	44.1%	0.87×	2.61

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	55.9%	58.0%	56.6%	1.02×	1.73
Lecce odd goals	44.1%	42.0%	43.4%	0.97×	2.38

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.7%	30.5%	34.3%	0.89×	3.28
HT 0-1	22.2%	22.6%	18.4%	1.23×	4.42
HT 1-0	14.3%	11.2%	18.3%	0.61×	8.91
HT 1-1	10.0%	7.7%	10.5%	0.74×	12.97
HT 0-2	7.7%	7.7%	5.4%	1.42×	13.00
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.75
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.80
HT 2-0	3.2%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.82
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.5%	2.3%	1.10×	39.87
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna at HT / Bologna at FT	29.3%	27.2%	19.2%	1.42×	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.3%	16.8%	16.7%	1.01×	5.97
Draw at HT / Bologna at FT	15.0%	16.7%	13.0%	1.29×	5.97
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	14.5%	12.0%	21.3%	0.56×	8.34
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	11.2%	12.0%	15.8%	0.76×	8.37
Bologna at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.6%	5.9%	1.10×	15.26
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.33
Lecce at HT / Bologna at FT	2.0%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.43
Bologna at HT / Lecce at FT	1.9%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to score last	53.3%	53.7%	43.6%	1.23×	1.86
Lecce to score last	38.9%	38.1%	48.4%	0.79×	2.62
No goal scored	7.9%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.96

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Bologna to lead by 1 at any time	60.7%	64.3%	51.1%	1.26×	1.56
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	44.3%	42.1%	54.7%	0.77×	2.37
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.8%	42.1%	42.6%	0.99×	2.37
Bologna to lead by 2 at any time	28.7%	26.0%	20.1%	1.30×	3.84
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	15.3%	17.6%	22.9%	0.77×	5.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	17.6%	14.5%	1.21×	5.68
Bologna to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	11.3%	6.3%	1.79×	8.85
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	2.6%	8.3%	0.32×	37.88

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna most corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Lecce most corners	39.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.7%	81.5%	80.7%	1.01×	1.23
2-6 goals	70.6%	73.6%	71.3%	1.03×	1.36
2-5 goals	67.6%	68.3%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	67.0%	68.3%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.7%	62.2%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
1-2 goals	45.4%	48.0%	44.7%	1.07×	2.08
3-6 goals	45.1%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
3-5 goals	42.2%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.2%	38.8%	36.1%	1.07×	2.58
4-6 goals	23.6%	24.7%	23.5%	1.05×	4.04
4-5 goals	20.7%	24.7%	21.6%	1.14×	4.05
5-6 goals	9.9%	8.9%	10.5%	0.85×	11.25
7+ goals	1.5%	2.0%	0.9%	2.28×	49.69

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna never behind	47.8%	53.7%	45.3%	1.18×	1.86
Lecce never behind	31.4%	36.1%	48.9%	0.74×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	44.7%	43.2%	1.04×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.6%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.9%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.6%	88.8%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.3%	53.5%	52.8%	1.01×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	46.7%	46.5%	47.2%	0.98×	2.15
Under 1.5 goals	27.9%	27.6%	27.9%	0.99×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	24.2%	1.14×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.4%	11.2%	11.2%	1.00×	8.91
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.1%	8.2%	0.86×	14.17
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.79

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.2%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.7%	88.1%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.0%	68.1%	68.5%	0.99×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.6%	62.4%	62.9%	0.99×	1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.4%	37.6%	37.1%	1.01×	2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.0%	31.9%	31.5%	1.01×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.3%	11.9%	12.9%	0.92×	8.39
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.8%	2.8%	3.0%	0.92×	35.70
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	0.9%	3.07×	36.21

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.1%	88.1%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.6%	65.7%	1.04×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.1%	68.6%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.9%	31.4%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.4%	34.3%	0.91×	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.9%	11.9%	8.1%	1.47×	8.42

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.5%	82.1%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	80.2%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	54.3%	56.8%	0.96×	1.84
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	45.7%	43.2%	1.06×	2.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	19.8%	22.1%	0.90×	5.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.5%	17.9%	17.7%	1.01×	5.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	83.2%	81.5%	76.3%	1.07×	1.23
Bologna not to score in both halves	73.0%	70.4%	78.8%	0.89×	1.42
Bologna to score in both halves	27.0%	29.6%	21.2%	1.39×	3.38
Lecce to score in both halves	16.8%	18.5%	23.7%	0.78×	5.42

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.6%	54.6%	48.6%	1.12×	1.83
Only Bologna scores	26.3%	25.6%	20.8%	1.23×	3.90
Only Lecce scores	15.1%	16.3%	22.6%	0.72×	6.13
Neither team scores	7.9%	6.7%	8.2%	0.81×	15.01

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	20.0%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.65
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.84

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.6%	46.2%	43.2%	1.07×	2.16
1 goal in 2nd half	34.6%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	24.8%	18.6%	22.1%	0.84×	5.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	94.5%	93.4%	90.3%	1.03×	1.07
Bologna not to win both halves	87.0%	87.5%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Bologna to win both halves	13.0%	12.5%	8.6%	1.45×	8.02
Lecce to win both halves	5.5%	6.6%	9.7%	0.68×	15.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to win either half	59.1%	59.5%	48.4%	1.23×	1.68
Lecce to win neither half	58.3%	59.5%	47.5%	1.25×	1.68
Lecce to win either half	41.7%	40.5%	52.5%	0.77×	2.47
Bologna to win neither half	40.9%	40.5%	51.6%	0.78×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	84.9%	83.3%	77.4%	1.08×	1.20
Bologna not to win to nil	73.7%	74.4%	79.2%	0.94×	1.35
Bologna to win to nil	26.3%	25.6%	20.8%	1.23×	3.90
Lecce to win to nil	15.1%	16.7%	22.6%	0.74×	6.00

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.1%	28.0%	26.8%	1.05×	3.57
Bologna by 1	23.4%	23.8%	19.9%	1.19×	4.21
Lecce by 1	17.1%	17.0%	22.5%	0.76×	5.89
Bologna by 2	13.9%	11.9%	8.5%	1.40×	8.42
Bologna by 3+	8.9%	7.1%	5.8%	1.22×	14.07
Lecce by 2	7.4%	7.1%	9.6%	0.74×	14.10
Lecce by 3+	3.1%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.33