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Lecce v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 August 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–0
2.34 – 2.09 xG
Shots
17 – 21
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 16
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.70 – 0.65
Goals − xG
-1.50 – -2.09
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Nikola Krstovic 25' — goal
Lecce 2.50 xGCagliari 2.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Alessandro Deiola 3' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 6' — Blocked Shot (0.57 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 6' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 10' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Balthazar Pierret 11' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lameck Banda 11' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Zito 14' — Shot On Post (0.33 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 17' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 20' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 25' — Goal (0.57 xG, From Corner)Roberto Piccoli 26' — Missed Shot (0.24 xG, From Corner)Zito 26' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Augello 32' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Patrick Dorgu 36' — Missed Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Kialonda Gaspar 42' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Remi Oudin 42' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Gianluca Lapadula 46' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Paulo Azzi 46' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Paulo Azzi 53' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Lapadula 56' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lameck Banda 61' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Lapadula 62' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 62' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sebastiano Luperto 63' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Razvan Marin 66' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Frederic Guilbert 73' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mattia Felici 79' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zito 84' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sebastiano Luperto 87' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Lapadula 88' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Nicolas Viola 88' — Shot On Post (0.31 xG, From Corner)Kialonda Gaspar 91' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Santiago Pierotti 91' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Yerry Mina 92' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Yerry Mina 92' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Santiago Pierotti 94' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 96' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Lecce attacking right Cagliari attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Cagliari Alessandro Deiola 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Zito
6' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
6' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
10' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lameck Banda
11' Lecce Balthazar Pierret 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
11' Lecce Lameck Banda 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Antonino Gallo
14' Cagliari Zito 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post
17' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ylber Ramadani
20' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriele Zappa
25' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.57 From Corner Right Foot Goal Kialonda Gaspar
26' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.24 From Corner Missed Shot Matteo Prati
26' Cagliari Zito 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Roberto Piccoli
32' Cagliari Tommaso Augello 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
36' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.53 Open Play Missed Shot Frederic Guilbert
42' Lecce Kialonda Gaspar 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Remi Oudin
42' Lecce Remi Oudin 0.03 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
46' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.03 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Razvan Marin
46' Cagliari Paulo Azzi 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Razvan Marin
53' Cagliari Paulo Azzi 0.28 Open Play Saved Shot Tommaso Augello
56' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.10 Open Play Blocked Shot Paulo Azzi
61' Lecce Lameck Banda 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nikola Krstovic
62' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alessandro Deiola
62' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lameck Banda
63' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
63' Cagliari Sebastiano Luperto 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
66' Cagliari Razvan Marin 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Lapadula
73' Lecce Frederic Guilbert 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
79' Cagliari Mattia Felici 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
84' Cagliari Zito 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Leonardo Pavoletti
87' Cagliari Sebastiano Luperto 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Razvan Marin
88' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
88' Cagliari Nicolas Viola 0.31 From Corner Left Foot Shot On Post Leonardo Pavoletti
91' Lecce Kialonda Gaspar 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Antonino Gallo
91' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Antonino Gallo
92' Cagliari Yerry Mina 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Leonardo Pavoletti
92' Cagliari Yerry Mina 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Razvan Marin
94' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ante Rebic
96' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ylber Ramadani

Players

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Zito FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.50 0.06 0.86
Yerry Mina DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.20
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.23
Razvan Marin MC 90 0 0 1 4 0.03 0.17 0.54
Tommaso Augello DML 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.28 0.86
Simone Scuffet GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Roberto Piccoli FW 84 0 0 3 1 0.40 0.09 0.33
Paulo Azzi DMR 70 0 0 2 1 0.40 0.10 0.57
Alessandro Deiola MC 70 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.09 0.23
Gabriele Zappa DC 48 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Matteo Prati MC 48 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.24 0.09
Gianluca Lapadula Sub 42 0 0 4 1 0.24 0.03 0.49
José Luis Palomino Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Nicolas Viola Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.31 0.00 0.08
Mattia Felici Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Leonardo Pavoletti Sub 6 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.47 0.17

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nikola Krstovic FW 90 1 0 5 1 1.53 0.07 1.55
Kialonda Gaspar DC 90 0 1 2 1 0.08 0.57 0.05
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Ylber Ramadani DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.10
Antonino Gallo DL 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.09 0.06
Lameck Banda AML 77 0 0 2 2 0.12 0.10 0.23
Frederic Guilbert DR 77 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.53 0.55
Balthazar Pierret DMC 77 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.72
Remi Oudin AMC 58 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.53
Patrick Dorgu AMR 45 0 0 2 0 0.55 0.00 0.64
Tete Morente Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Pierotti Sub 13 0 0 3 0 0.15 0.00 0.14
Lassana Coulibaly Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gaby Jean Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ante Rebic Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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