Lecce v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 19 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 13
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.75 – 1.26
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -0.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
25.4%
Draw
31.0%
Cagliari win
43.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWLWWWLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 12
from 21.2 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.93–1.30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–1.44 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 1.14 xGCagliari 2.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.56 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Riccardo Sottil |
| 15' |
Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 17' |
 Cagliari |
Andrea Belotti | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 17' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Matteo Prati |
| 18' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 21' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 28' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Belotti |
| 32' |
Cagliari |
Andrea Belotti | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marco Palestra |
| 40' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 43' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 44' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Michael Folorunsho |
| 46' |
Lecce |
Alex Sala | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 46' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 47' |
Cagliari |
Andrea Belotti | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Deiola |
| 54' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 66' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 70' |
Cagliari |
Andrea Belotti | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 75' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 83' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 89' |
Cagliari |
Mattia Felici | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Folorunsho DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| Adam Obert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Andrea Belotti FW | 75 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.72 | 0.04 | 0.89 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.73 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 0.15 |
| Mattia Felici Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Mazzitelli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Owen Kouassi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Pierotti FWR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| Ylber Ramadani MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Riccardo Sottil FWL | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.02 |
| Alex Sala MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corrie Ndaba Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Tete Morente Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |