Lecce v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.75 – 1.46
Goals − xG
-1.15 – +0.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
20.9%
Draw
33.1%
Como win
46.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWLWWWLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 12
from 21.2 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.79–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.83–1.60 | 0-1 14% | 44% | 45% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 1.15 xGComo 2.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 7' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 19' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 25' |
 Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 36' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 37' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 42' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 44' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 47' |
Lecce |
Youssef Maleh | 0.53 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 51' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 52' |
Lecce |
Antonino Gallo | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Lecce |
Riccardo Sottil | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Como |
Diego Carlos | 0.74 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 65' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.66 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 72' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 74' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nico Paz |
| 76' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Camarda |
| 85' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alex Sala |
| 88' |
Lecce |
Thórir Helgason | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Sala |
| 92' |
Lecce |
Alex Sala | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Konan N’Dri |
Players
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.85 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.78 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Mergim Vojvoda AMR | 87 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.71 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.41 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andréa Le Borgne Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Riccardo Sottil ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Santiago Pierotti MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.08 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Alex Sala Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olaf Gorter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |