Lecce v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 10
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.46 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.23 – +0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
37.6%
Draw
33.1%
Cremonese win
29.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.15 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 1.77 xGCremonese 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 21' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.55 | From Corner | — | Goal | Antonino Gallo |
| 28' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 34' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 37' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 46' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Milan Djuric |
| 56' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Okereke |
| 67' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 68' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 75' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Milan Djuric |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaby Jean Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sadik Fofana Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Folino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Morten Thorsby MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| David Okereke Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |