Lecce v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 8
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-1.21 – -0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
28.2%
Draw
28.1%
Genoa win
43.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLLDLWL last 10
scored 6
from 9.7 xG
conceded 16
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.30 | 1-1 13% | 42% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 2.21 xGGenoa 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Santiago Pierotti |
| 5' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 10' |
Lecce |
Antonino Gallo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 15' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 19' |
 Genoa |
Alessandro Marcandalli | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 19' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 42' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 43' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 48' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Danilo Veiga |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 62' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 67' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Antonino Gallo |
| 70' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Jacopo Grossi | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Mikael Ellertsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Nils Zätterström DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sebastian Otoa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Patrizio Masini MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Alex Amorim MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| Stefano Sabelli DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wedtoin Ouedraogo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jacopo Grossi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaël Lafont Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Carbone Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 1.13 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 66 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.01 | 1.10 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Gaby Jean Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kialonda Gaspar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |