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Lecce v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 26 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–4
0.72 – 2.58 xG
Shots
17 – 9
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.29
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.72 – +1.41
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.52.22.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Davide Frattesi 5' — goalLautaro Martínez 38' — goalDenzel Dumfries 56' — goalMehdi Taremi 60' — goal
Lecce 0.72 xGInternazionale 2.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nikola Krstovic 3' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 5' — Goal (0.63 xG, Open Play)Frederic Guilbert 6' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Federico Baschirotto 8' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Marcus Thuram 20' — Missed Shot (0.51 xG, Open Play)Piotr Zielinski 26' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 28' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 38' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Henrikh Mkhitaryan 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 47' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Thórir Helgason 52' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 54' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 54' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 55' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Denzel Dumfries 56' — Goal (0.39 xG, Open Play)Mehdi Taremi 60' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mehdi Taremi 65' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Piotr Zielinski 65' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 66' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 69' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Federico Baschirotto 70' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 70' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Patrick Dorgu 73' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Ylber Ramadani 74' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 75' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jesper Karlsson 91' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Lecce attacking right Internazionale attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Tete Morente
5' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Goal Marcus Thuram
6' Lecce Frederic Guilbert 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Federico Baschirotto
8' Lecce Federico Baschirotto 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Thórir Helgason
20' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.51 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
26' Internazionale Piotr Zielinski 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Denzel Dumfries
28' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
38' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Piotr Zielinski
45' Internazionale Henrikh Mkhitaryan 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.10 Open Play Missed Shot Tete Morente
52' Lecce Thórir Helgason 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
54' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Santiago Pierotti
54' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
55' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Thórir Helgason
56' Internazionale Denzel Dumfries 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Goal Lautaro Martínez
60' Internazionale Mehdi Taremi 0.76 Right Foot Goal
65' Internazionale Mehdi Taremi 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tajon Buchanan
65' Internazionale Piotr Zielinski 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
66' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
69' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nikola Krstovic
70' Lecce Federico Baschirotto 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Thórir Helgason
70' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Thórir Helgason
73' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Thórir Helgason
74' Lecce Ylber Ramadani 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Thórir Helgason
75' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
91' Lecce Jesper Karlsson 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Frederic Guilbert

Players

Internazionale

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marcus Thuram FW 90 0 1 1 1 0.51 0.63 1.20
Piotr Zielinski MC 90 0 1 2 1 0.15 0.07 0.61
Alessandro Bastoni DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Yann Sommer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Matteo Darmian DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Augusto DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Davide Frattesi MC 76 1 0 1 0 0.63 0.00 1.02
Denzel Dumfries DMR 63 1 0 1 1 0.39 0.05 0.44
Lautaro Martínez FW 60 1 1 1 1 0.07 0.39 0.46
Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC 59 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Stefan de Vrij DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yann Bisseck Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Nicolò Barella Sub 31 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Mehdi Taremi Sub 30 1 0 2 0 0.83 0.00 0.06
Tajon Buchanan Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Kristjan Asllani Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Santiago Pierotti FWR 90 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.05 0.21
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.05 0.25
Frederic Guilbert DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.08 0.18
Thórir Helgason MC 90 0 0 1 6 0.04 0.20 0.28
Patrick Dorgu DL 90 0 0 2 2 0.04 0.07 0.42
Gaby Jean DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nikola Krstovic FW 87 0 0 7 1 0.25 0.07 0.35
Tete Morente FWL 84 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.21
Balthazar Pierret MC 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Lassana Coulibaly MC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ylber Ramadani Sub 43 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.27
Mohamed Kaba Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Jesper Karlsson Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Rares Burnete Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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