Lecce v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lecce

14:00 UTC

Internazionale

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,419h before kick-off

Lecce win

7.2%

model 8.0%

Draw

10.9%

model 14.0%

Internazionale win

81.9%

model 78.0%

71182

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (68 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-2 11.9%
0-3 10.5%
0-1 9.0%
1-2 8.8%
1-3 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.6%	Under 2.5	34.4%
BTTS yes	48.3%	BTTS no	51.7%
Lecce 1+	52.0%	Lecce 2+	16.8%
Internazionale 1+	92.9%	Internazionale 2+	74.1%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.64. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Internazionale (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

78.4% fair odds 1.28

strong signal · 1318 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 66%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Internazionale carry the stronger rating, 1830 Elo against 1480.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Internazionale have an estimated 81.9% win probability, against 10.9% for the draw and 7.2% for Lecce. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.73 for Lecce and 2.64 for Internazionale.

Why Lecce

At home Lecce average 1.44 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Internazionale were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.78.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.9%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Internazionale can win

Internazionale carry the stronger rating, 1830 Elo against 1480. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.24), Nikola Stulic (0.23). Internazionale's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lautaro Martínez (0.76), Marcus Thuram (0.57), Federico Dimarco (0.52).

Availability

2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Internazionale's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lecce: 44% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.48 xG a match from set pieces. Internazionale: 61% possession, 20.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.90 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Internazionale are the model's most likely outcome at 81.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.9%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLWLLW last 10 scored 13 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 23.2 xG

Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WDDWWWWDWW last 10 scored 28 from 28.3 xG conceded 13 from 12.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	81478	0.73–2.64	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	81478	0.76–2.69	0-2 11%	67%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win	73.3%	73.8%	33.7%	2.19×	1.36
Draw	15.6%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.16
Lecce to win	11.2%	13.4%	40.0%	0.34×	7.44

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & both teams score	36.9%	33.3%	13.2%	2.52×	3.00
Internazionale & not both score	36.4%	33.3%	20.6%	1.62×	3.00
Draw & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.54
Lecce & both teams score	6.7%	8.3%	17.5%	0.47×	12.01
Lecce & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	22.6%	0.22×	20.56
Draw & not both score	2.9%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.61

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & over 1.5	65.7%	67.5%	24.6%	2.74×	1.48
Internazionale & over 2.5	55.9%	54.8%	18.1%	3.02×	1.82
Internazionale & over 3.5	38.2%	34.9%	7.5%	4.68×	2.87
Internazionale & under 3.5	35.1%	34.9%	26.3%	1.33×	2.87
Internazionale & under 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	12.7%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	9.9%	7.9%	19.7%	0.40×	12.63
Draw & under 3.5	9.9%	7.9%	19.7%	0.40×	12.63
Lecce & over 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	29.9%	0.26×	12.63
Lecce & under 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	29.6%	0.27×	12.63
Internazionale & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Lecce & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	23.3%	0.34×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Lecce & under 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	16.8%	0.29×	20.81
Lecce & over 3.5	3.5%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.82
Lecce & under 1.5	2.7%	4.8%	10.2%	0.47×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1UP)	83.1%	87.7%	50.5%	1.74×	1.14
Lecce (1UP)	29.8%	27.4%	55.3%	0.50×	3.65

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2UP)	73.3%	81.3%	36.2%	2.25×	1.23
Lecce (2UP)	11.2%	13.9%	41.8%	0.33×	7.21

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win 2nd half	61.6%	59.6%	30.2%	1.98×	1.68
2nd half drawn	27.1%	25.7%	35.0%	0.74×	3.88
Lecce to win 2nd half	11.3%	11.1%	35.0%	0.32×	8.97

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.6%	78.9%	50.0%	1.58×	1.27
Internazionale under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	54.6%	85.1%	0.64×	1.83
Internazionale over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	45.4%	14.9%	3.04×	2.20
Internazionale under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.4%	21.1%	50.0%	0.42×	4.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.9%	94.3%	81.5%	1.16×	1.06
Lecce under 0.5 in 2nd half	64.7%	63.3%	46.3%	1.37×	1.58
Lecce over 0.5 in 2nd half	35.3%	36.7%	53.7%	0.68×	2.73
Lecce over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.1%	5.7%	18.5%	0.31×	17.65

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (+2.5)	99.1%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Internazionale (+1.5)	96.5%	96.3%	82.5%	1.17×	1.04
Internazionale (+0.5)	88.8%	88.5%	60.0%	1.48×	1.13
Internazionale (-0.5)	73.3%	73.7%	33.7%	2.19×	1.36
Lecce (+0.5)	26.7%	26.3%	66.3%	0.40×	3.80
Lecce (-0.5)	11.2%	11.5%	40.0%	0.29×	8.67
Lecce (-1.5)	3.5%	3.7%	17.5%	0.21×	27.07
Lecce (-2.5)	0.9%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	27.25

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to concede	60.8%	67.5%	71.6%	0.94×	1.48
Internazionale clean sheet	39.2%	32.5%	28.4%	1.15×	3.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale clean sheet in 1st half	60.6%	65.0%	57.9%	1.12×	1.54
Internazionale to concede in 1st half	39.4%	35.0%	42.1%	0.83×	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale clean sheet in 2nd half	64.7%	61.9%	46.3%	1.34×	1.62
Internazionale to concede in 2nd half	35.3%	38.1%	53.7%	0.71×	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 2.5 corners	85.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Internazionale over 3.5 corners	73.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Internazionale under 6.5 corners	64.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Internazionale over 4.5 corners	60.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Internazionale under 5.5 corners	52.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Internazionale over 5.5 corners	47.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Internazionale under 4.5 corners	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Internazionale over 6.5 corners	35.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Internazionale under 3.5 corners	26.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Internazionale under 2.5 corners	14.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 0.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	69.6%	1.33×	1.08
Internazionale over 1.5 goals	73.5%	71.9%	35.0%	2.06×	1.39
Internazionale under 3.5 goals	73.4%	71.9%	97.1%	0.74×	1.39
Internazionale under 2.5 goals	51.5%	53.5%	88.1%	0.61×	1.87
Internazionale over 2.5 goals	48.5%	46.5%	11.9%	3.91×	2.15
Internazionale over 3.5 goals	26.6%	28.1%	2.9%	9.75×	3.56
Internazionale under 1.5 goals	26.5%	28.1%	65.0%	0.43×	3.56
Internazionale under 0.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	30.4%	0.25×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 0.5 in 1st half	69.9%	69.6%	41.2%	1.69×	1.44
Internazionale under 1.5 in 1st half	66.2%	69.3%	89.9%	0.77×	1.44
Internazionale over 1.5 in 1st half	33.8%	30.7%	10.1%	3.04×	3.26
Internazionale under 0.5 in 1st half	30.1%	30.4%	58.8%	0.52×	3.29

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale scores more in 2nd half	41.8%	43.4%	32.8%	1.32×	2.30
Internazionale scores more in 1st half	32.1%	33.6%	23.9%	1.41×	2.97
Internazionale scores equally in both	26.2%	26.3%	43.4%	0.61×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	58.2%	57.4%	39.8%	1.44×	1.74
Lecce (away no bet)	41.8%	42.6%	60.2%	0.71×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale even goals	50.3%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Internazionale odd goals	49.7%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.1%	76.6%	87.3%	0.88×	1.31
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.9%	23.4%	12.7%	1.84×	4.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.9%	72.5%	60.2%	1.20×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.1%	27.5%	39.8%	0.69×	3.63

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	73.6%	72.2%	53.4%	1.35×	1.39
Internazionale to score 2+ in a row	66.5%	62.3%	27.8%	2.24×	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	39.9%	36.7%	17.9%	2.05×	2.72
Internazionale to score 3+ in a row	37.6%	36.6%	7.9%	4.62×	2.73
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	14.5%	12.1%	31.7%	0.38×	8.27
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	2.6%	2.6%	10.1%	0.25×	39.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale corners (+3.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Internazionale corners (+2.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Internazionale corners (+1.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lecce corners (+3.5)	66.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lecce corners (+2.5)	56.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Internazionale corners (-1.5)	54.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Lecce corners (+1.5)	45.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Internazionale corners (-2.5)	43.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Internazionale corners (-3.5)	33.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lecce corners (-1.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Lecce corners (-2.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Lecce corners (-3.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	55.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	45.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	35.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.15×	8.72
0-2	9.8%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.50
0-3	8.6%	7.4%	3.5%	2.12×	13.50
1-2	9.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
1-1	7.0%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.51
1-3	8.0%	7.4%	2.0%	3.62×	13.50
0-4	5.6%	7.4%	1.0%	7.70×	13.51
1-4	5.2%	7.4%	0.7%	10.27×	13.51
0-0	2.9%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.30
1-0	2.7%	1.7%	10.2%	0.17×	58.30
2-0	1.3%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.31
2-1	3.3%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.30
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
2-3	3.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
2-4	2.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
3-0	0.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.32
3-1	1.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-2	1.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.32
4-1	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2nd half DNB)	84.5%	83.4%	46.3%	1.80×	1.20
Lecce (2nd half DNB)	15.5%	16.6%	53.7%	0.31×	6.03

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale leading at HT (DNB)	77.7%	75.2%	48.9%	1.54×	1.33
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	22.3%	24.8%	51.1%	0.49×	4.03

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (X2)	88.8%	86.6%	60.0%	1.44×	1.16
Lecce or Internazionale (12)	84.4%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Lecce or draw (1X)	26.7%	26.2%	66.3%	0.39×	3.82

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw at HT	84.6%	84.4%	71.6%	1.18×	1.19
Lecce or Internazionale at HT	69.1%	66.7%	55.4%	1.20×	1.50
Lecce or draw at HT	46.4%	52.5%	72.8%	0.72×	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (1UP)	88.8%	92.2%	65.5%	1.41×	1.09
Lecce or draw (1UP)	29.8%	32.2%	71.6%	0.45×	3.11

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw in 2nd half	88.7%	88.9%	65.0%	1.37×	1.13
Lecce or Internazionale in 2nd half	72.9%	74.3%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	38.4%	40.4%	69.8%	0.58×	2.48

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	49.6%	50.2%	63.5%	0.79×	1.99
Neither half drawn	50.4%	49.8%	36.5%	1.36×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (DNB)	86.8%	87.1%	45.7%	1.91×	1.15
Lecce (DNB)	13.2%	12.9%	54.3%	0.24×	7.73

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score first	71.5%	75.2%	43.6%	1.72×	1.33
Lecce to score first	25.6%	27.7%	48.6%	0.57×	3.61
No goal scored	2.9%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.3%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.7%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.3%	44.4%	37.4%	1.19×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	24.2%	27.8%	40.1%	0.69×	3.60
Not both score & over 2.5	19.5%	21.6%	10.8%	2.00×	4.63
Both score & under 2.5	7.0%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.3%	82.6%	86.5%	0.95×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.7%	17.4%	13.5%	1.29×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.3%	73.8%	74.9%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.7%	26.2%	25.1%	1.04×	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.1%	54.9%	62.7%	0.87×	1.82
Both score 1st half only	20.2%	21.0%	12.3%	1.71×	4.76
Both score 2nd half only	19.4%	15.1%	20.3%	0.75×	6.61
Both score in both halves	7.4%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.5%	79.6%	82.9%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	27.5%	20.4%	17.1%	1.19×	4.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	68.9%	66.6%	52.8%	1.26×	1.50
A half without a goal	31.1%	33.4%	47.2%	0.71×	2.99

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	40.5%	42.1%	23.8%	1.77×	2.38
2-3 goals	39.6%	35.1%	48.4%	0.73×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.1%	16.9%	27.0%	0.63×	5.91
7+ goals	6.8%	7.6%	1.0%	7.92×	13.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score 3+	48.5%	42.9%	11.9%	3.60×	2.33
Internazionale to score exactly 2	25.0%	27.4%	23.2%	1.18×	3.66
Internazionale to score exactly 1	19.2%	19.6%	34.7%	0.56×	5.11
Internazionale to score exactly 0	7.3%	8.5%	30.4%	0.28×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 0	39.2%	35.6%	28.4%	1.25×	2.81
Lecce to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Lecce to score exactly 2	17.2%	18.8%	24.8%	0.76×	5.33
Lecce to score 3+	6.9%	10.3%	15.0%	0.69×	9.72

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale leading at HT	53.6%	47.5%	27.2%	1.75×	2.11
Draw at HT	30.9%	33.3%	44.6%	0.75×	3.01
Lecce leading at HT	15.4%	15.6%	28.4%	0.55×	6.41

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale -1: 2	51.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Internazionale -1: 1	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Internazionale -1: X	21.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:1)	88.8%	89.5%	60.0%	1.49×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	7.6%	9.2%	22.6%	0.41×	10.82
Lecce (0:1)	3.5%	5.7%	17.5%	0.32×	17.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:2)	96.5%	94.2%	82.5%	1.14×	1.06
Draw (0:2)	2.7%	3.7%	10.0%	0.38×	26.71
Lecce (0:2)	0.9%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	26.82

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:3)	99.1%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.16
Lecce (0:3)	0.2%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:4)	99.8%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Lecce (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.10
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1:0)	51.9%	54.0%	14.4%	3.74×	1.85
Lecce (1:0)	26.7%	25.1%	66.3%	0.38×	3.99
Draw (1:0)	21.3%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (2:0)	48.1%	49.2%	85.6%	0.58×	2.03
Internazionale (2:0)	31.2%	31.8%	5.9%	5.40×	3.15
Draw (2:0)	20.7%	18.9%	8.7%	2.18×	5.29

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.9%	44.7%	46.2%	0.97×	2.24
1st half highest scoring	36.0%	36.0%	27.0%	1.33×	2.78
Halves equal	22.1%	24.3%	26.9%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	92.7%	93.1%	69.6%	1.34×	1.07
Lecce clean sheet	7.3%	6.9%	30.4%	0.23×	14.53

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	69.9%	69.9%	41.2%	1.70×	1.43
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	30.1%	30.1%	58.8%	0.51×	3.33

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 2nd half	75.6%	82.8%	50.0%	1.66×	1.21
Lecce clean sheet in 2nd half	24.4%	17.2%	50.0%	0.34×	5.82

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 6.5 corners	88.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Lecce under 5.5 corners	80.3%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Lecce under 4.5 corners	68.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lecce over 2.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Lecce under 3.5 corners	53.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lecce over 3.5 corners	46.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lecce under 2.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Lecce over 4.5 corners	31.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lecce over 5.5 corners	19.7%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Lecce over 6.5 corners	11.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	98.5%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Lecce under 2.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	85.0%	1.09×	1.08
Lecce under 1.5 goals	75.9%	77.7%	60.3%	1.29×	1.29
Lecce over 0.5 goals	60.8%	63.6%	71.6%	0.89×	1.57
Lecce under 0.5 goals	39.2%	36.4%	28.4%	1.28×	2.75
Lecce over 1.5 goals	24.1%	22.3%	39.7%	0.56×	4.49
Lecce over 2.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	15.0%	0.52×	12.89
Lecce over 3.5 goals	1.5%	3.6%	4.7%	0.77×	27.59

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	91.0%	94.6%	89.3%	1.06×	1.06
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	64.8%	57.9%	1.12×	1.54
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	35.2%	42.1%	0.84×	2.84
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	9.0%	5.4%	10.7%	0.50×	18.69

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce scores equally in both	48.3%	47.5%	41.7%	1.14×	2.11
Lecce scores more in 1st half	28.1%	27.8%	22.2%	1.25×	3.59
Lecce scores more in 2nd half	23.7%	21.3%	36.2%	0.59×	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (home no bet)	82.5%	86.5%	56.0%	1.54×	1.16
Draw (home no bet)	17.5%	13.5%	44.0%	0.31×	7.40

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	57.7%	55.3%	56.3%	0.98×	1.81
Lecce odd goals	42.3%	44.7%	43.8%	1.02×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-1	21.9%	24.4%	18.1%	1.35×	4.10
HT 0-0	18.2%	18.6%	33.8%	0.55×	5.38
Any other HT score	13.3%	11.0%	3.4%	3.28×	9.07
HT 0-2	13.2%	11.0%	5.4%	2.04×	9.07
HT 1-1	11.0%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.09
HT 1-0	9.1%	6.9%	18.4%	0.38×	14.46
HT 1-2	6.6%	6.9%	2.6%	2.61×	14.50
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.10
HT 2-0	2.3%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.13
HT 2-2	1.6%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale at HT / Internazionale at FT	50.0%	48.0%	19.1%	2.51×	2.08
Draw at HT / Internazionale at FT	19.1%	16.7%	12.9%	1.30×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.4%	6.0%	16.1%	0.37×	16.59
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	7.0%	6.0%	22.0%	0.27×	16.63
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.61
Lecce at HT / Internazionale at FT	4.2%	3.5%	1.9%	1.82×	28.61
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	3.5%	3.5%	15.9%	0.22×	28.64
Internazionale at HT / Draw at FT	3.0%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.66
Internazionale at HT / Lecce at FT	0.7%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score last	71.5%	72.8%	44.0%	1.65×	1.37
Lecce to score last	25.6%	27.4%	48.2%	0.57×	3.65
No goal scored	2.9%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.47

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.1%	95.7%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Internazionale to lead by 1 at any time	83.1%	87.7%	50.5%	1.74×	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.9%	69.3%	43.6%	1.59×	1.44
Internazionale to lead by 2 at any time	58.8%	54.9%	20.2%	2.72×	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	36.7%	34.6%	15.1%	2.29×	2.89
Internazionale to lead by 3 at any time	35.1%	34.6%	6.5%	5.33×	2.89
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	29.8%	25.6%	55.3%	0.46×	3.91
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	23.9%	0.28×	14.90
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	1.6%	1.6%	8.8%	0.18×	63.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale most corners	65.0%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Lecce most corners	25.4%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.3%	83.4%	89.2%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.1%	83.4%	72.1%	1.16×	1.20
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-4 goals	68.8%	68.8%	80.8%	0.85×	1.45
3-6 goals	62.0%	63.3%	47.2%	1.34×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.6%	59.1%	61.7%	0.96×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.0%	53.2%	45.2%	1.18×	1.88
1-3 goals	49.8%	48.5%	67.5%	0.72×	2.06
4-6 goals	40.5%	43.6%	23.8%	1.83×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	36.8%	1.18×	2.30
2-3 goals	39.6%	39.2%	48.4%	0.81×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.5%	35.2%	21.8%	1.62×	2.84
1-2 goals	28.3%	30.2%	44.1%	0.69×	3.31
5-6 goals	21.5%	24.5%	10.6%	2.31×	4.09
7+ goals	6.8%	8.9%	1.0%	9.23×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale never behind	67.3%	69.3%	44.7%	1.55×	1.44
Lecce never behind	14.0%	12.4%	49.5%	0.25×	8.05

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.7%	51.6%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.3%	48.4%	43.4%	1.12×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.1%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.9%	87.6%	73.0%	1.20×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	97.0%	0.90×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	71.7%	72.5%	88.6%	0.82×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	68.8%	66.3%	48.1%	1.38×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	52.6%	52.5%	75.4%	0.70×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	47.4%	47.5%	24.6%	1.93×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	31.2%	33.7%	51.9%	0.65×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	28.3%	27.5%	11.4%	2.41×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.13×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	13.1%	12.4%	27.0%	0.46×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	2.9%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.6%	92.4%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	84.0%	81.1%	64.0%	1.27×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	82.9%	81.1%	96.7%	0.84×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	65.0%	67.4%	86.8%	0.78×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.3%	61.9%	32.2%	1.92×	1.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.7%	38.1%	67.8%	0.56×	2.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	35.0%	32.6%	13.2%	2.48×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	17.1%	18.9%	3.3%	5.76×	5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.0%	18.9%	36.0%	0.53×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.4%	7.6%	1.0%	7.74×	13.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.8%	85.8%	66.2%	1.30×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	75.7%	78.1%	91.2%	0.86×	1.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half	50.7%	54.9%	29.9%	1.83×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 1st half	49.3%	45.1%	70.1%	0.64×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half	24.3%	21.9%	8.8%	2.50×	4.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.2%	14.2%	33.8%	0.42×	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.2%	83.2%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	77.3%	82.5%	0.94×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.1%	54.8%	43.0%	1.27×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.9%	45.2%	57.0%	0.79×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	22.7%	17.5%	1.29×	4.41
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.8%	16.8%	21.4%	0.78×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	86.1%	85.3%	75.8%	1.12×	1.17
Internazionale to score in both halves	52.9%	55.4%	21.6%	2.56×	1.81
Internazionale not to score in both halves	47.1%	44.6%	78.4%	0.57×	2.24
Lecce to score in both halves	13.9%	14.7%	24.2%	0.61×	6.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.3%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only Internazionale scores	36.4%	39.9%	20.6%	1.94×	2.51
Only Lecce scores	4.5%	4.6%	22.6%	0.20×	21.66
Neither team scores	2.9%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.72

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.0%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	18.1%	17.5%	25.0%	0.70×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.04×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	13.5%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	10.2%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	2.9%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	31.0%	35.8%	36.4%	0.98×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.4%	28.2%	21.3%	1.33×	3.54
3+ goals in 1st half	24.3%	21.5%	8.8%	2.46×	4.64
No goals in 1st half	18.2%	15.7%	33.8%	0.46×	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.1%	54.0%	43.0%	1.25×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	29.1%	29.3%	35.7%	0.82×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	15.8%	16.4%	21.4%	0.77×	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	98.3%	97.2%	89.9%	1.08×	1.03
Internazionale not to win both halves	67.0%	69.6%	91.1%	0.76×	1.44
Internazionale to win both halves	33.0%	30.4%	8.9%	3.42×	3.29
Lecce to win both halves	1.7%	2.8%	10.1%	0.27×	36.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win either half	82.2%	83.5%	48.4%	1.72×	1.20
Lecce to win neither half	75.0%	79.6%	46.8%	1.70×	1.26
Lecce to win either half	25.0%	20.4%	53.2%	0.38×	4.90
Internazionale to win neither half	17.8%	16.5%	51.6%	0.32×	6.06

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	95.5%	96.1%	77.4%	1.24×	1.04
Internazionale not to win to nil	63.6%	66.6%	79.4%	0.84×	1.50
Internazionale to win to nil	36.4%	33.4%	20.6%	1.62×	3.00
Lecce to win to nil	4.5%	3.9%	22.6%	0.17×	25.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale by 3+	31.2%	27.7%	5.9%	4.70×	3.62
Internazionale by 1	21.3%	24.1%	19.4%	1.25×	4.15
Internazionale by 2	20.7%	24.1%	8.7%	2.78×	4.15
Draw	15.6%	17.0%	26.4%	0.64×	5.87
Lecce by 1	7.6%	7.2%	22.6%	0.32×	13.91
Lecce by 2	2.7%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.82
Lecce by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.88