Lecce v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 15
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.29
Goals − xG
-0.61 – -1.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
14.5%
Draw
21.7%
Juventus win
63.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDWWDLWDL last 10
scored 12
from 18.7 xG
conceded 12
from 5.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.68–1.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.81–1.94 | 0-1 12% | 52% | 48% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 0.61 xGJuventus 2.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 2' |
 Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 3' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Manuel Locatelli |
| 3' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 14' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 21' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 47' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 62' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 68' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 70' |
Lecce |
Thórir Helgason | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 71' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 74' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 75' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 76' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Juventus |
Emil Holm | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 80' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tiago Gabriel |
| 91' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.61 |
| Weston McKennie AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.66 |
| Kenan Yildiz AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Francisco Conceição AMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.13 | 0.88 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Federico Gatti Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Gaby Jean Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |