Lecce v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lecce

17:00 UTC

Juventus

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 6h before kick-off

Lecce win

11.2%

model 14.5%

Draw

23.3%

model 20.8%

Juventus win

65.5%

model 64.7%

112366

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 12.3%
0-2 12.1%
1-1 9.9%
1-2 9.7%
0-3 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.4%	Under 2.5	47.6%
BTTS yes	47.5%	BTTS no	52.5%
Lecce 1+	55.2%	Lecce 2+	19.2%
Juventus 1+	86.0%	Juventus 2+	58.6%

Expected goals 0.80 – 1.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Juventus (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

63.8% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lecce not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 76%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1677 Elo against 1480.
Juventus have created 1.87 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.32.
Away from home Juventus average 2.13 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Juventus have an estimated 65.5% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 11.2% for Lecce. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.80 for Lecce and 1.97 for Juventus.

Why Lecce

Lecce have created 1.60 xG a match over their last five while Juventus have allowed 0.58. At home Lecce average 1.44 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Juventus were missing 1.41 expected goal involvements a match against 0.78.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Juventus can win

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1677 Elo against 1480. Juventus have created 1.87 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.32. Away from home Juventus average 2.13 xG a match.

Key players

Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.24), Nikola Stulic (0.23). Juventus's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kenan Yildiz (0.43), Randal Kolo Muani (0.43), Dusan Vlahovic (0.38).

Availability

2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Juventus's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Juventus's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lecce: 44% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.48 xG a match from set pieces. Juventus: 58% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Juventus are the model's most likely outcome at 65.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

No channel's listings name this match. That is the guide being silent rather than the match being off — most listings say "Live: Premier League" or the name of a studio show, not who is playing. Open the 333 sports channels →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLWLLW last 10 scored 13 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 23.2 xG

Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLDWWDLWDL last 10 scored 12 from 18.7 xG conceded 12 from 5.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	142165	0.80–1.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	132067	0.74–2.00	0-1 13%	51%	45%
deep	132067	0.74–2.00	0-1 13%	51%	45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win	66.9%	64.8%	33.6%	1.93×	1.54
Draw	20.2%	24.4%	26.4%	0.93×	4.09
Lecce to win	12.8%	13.5%	40.1%	0.34×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & not both score	41.3%	40.1%	20.6%	1.95×	2.50
Juventus & both teams score	25.6%	25.1%	13.1%	1.91×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.54
Lecce & not both score	7.1%	8.3%	22.6%	0.37×	12.01
Draw & not both score	6.5%	8.3%	7.9%	1.06×	12.01
Lecce & both teams score	5.8%	8.3%	17.7%	0.47×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & over 1.5	54.0%	48.9%	24.6%	1.99×	2.04
Juventus & under 3.5	44.1%	40.3%	26.3%	1.53×	2.48
Juventus & over 2.5	41.0%	40.2%	18.0%	2.23×	2.49
Juventus & under 2.5	25.9%	26.1%	15.7%	1.66×	3.84
Juventus & over 3.5	22.8%	21.6%	7.4%	2.92×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	13.7%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Juventus & under 1.5	13.0%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Lecce & under 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	29.6%	0.43×	7.79
Lecce & over 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	30.1%	0.26×	12.63
Lecce & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	23.4%	0.34×	12.63
Lecce & under 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Lecce & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	10.2%	0.47×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.81
Lecce & over 3.5	2.3%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1UP)	76.6%	78.6%	50.3%	1.56×	1.27
Lecce (1UP)	28.3%	26.9%	55.4%	0.49×	3.71

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2UP)	66.9%	68.3%	36.1%	1.89×	1.46
Lecce (2UP)	12.8%	14.0%	42.1%	0.33×	7.14

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win 2nd half	53.2%	52.1%	30.2%	1.72×	1.92
2nd half drawn	32.6%	34.1%	34.9%	0.98×	2.93
Lecce to win 2nd half	14.2%	11.5%	35.0%	0.33×	8.70

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.0%	70.2%	84.8%	0.83×	1.42
Juventus over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.6%	70.1%	50.2%	1.40×	1.43
Juventus under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.4%	29.9%	49.8%	0.60×	3.34
Juventus over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.0%	29.8%	15.2%	1.96×	3.36

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.9%	94.4%	81.1%	1.16×	1.06
Lecce under 0.5 in 2nd half	64.8%	63.0%	46.1%	1.37×	1.59
Lecce over 0.5 in 2nd half	35.2%	37.0%	53.9%	0.69×	2.70
Lecce over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.1%	5.6%	18.9%	0.30×	17.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (+2.5)	99.3%	96.3%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Juventus (+1.5)	96.4%	96.3%	82.4%	1.17×	1.04
Juventus (+0.5)	87.2%	88.5%	59.9%	1.48×	1.13
Juventus (-0.5)	66.9%	68.7%	33.6%	2.05×	1.46
Lecce (+0.5)	33.1%	31.3%	66.4%	0.47×	3.19
Lecce (-0.5)	12.8%	11.5%	40.1%	0.29×	8.67
Lecce (-1.5)	3.6%	3.7%	17.6%	0.21×	27.09
Lecce (-2.5)	0.7%	3.7%	7.6%	0.48×	27.27

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to concede	52.2%	55.9%	71.7%	0.78×	1.79
Juventus clean sheet	47.8%	44.1%	28.3%	1.56×	2.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 1st half	73.8%	77.2%	57.9%	1.33×	1.30
Juventus to concede in 1st half	26.2%	22.8%	42.1%	0.54×	4.40

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 2nd half	64.8%	61.5%	46.1%	1.33×	1.63
Juventus to concede in 2nd half	35.2%	38.5%	53.9%	0.71×	2.60

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus over 2.5 corners	85.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Juventus over 3.5 corners	74.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Juventus under 6.5 corners	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Juventus over 4.5 corners	61.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Juventus under 5.5 corners	51.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Juventus over 5.5 corners	48.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Juventus under 4.5 corners	38.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Juventus over 6.5 corners	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Juventus under 3.5 corners	25.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Juventus under 2.5 corners	14.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus over 0.5 goals	86.4%	87.8%	69.7%	1.26×	1.14
Juventus under 3.5 goals	85.8%	87.8%	97.1%	0.90×	1.14
Juventus under 2.5 goals	67.8%	68.0%	88.1%	0.77×	1.47
Juventus over 1.5 goals	59.3%	59.5%	35.1%	1.69×	1.68
Juventus under 1.5 goals	40.7%	40.5%	64.9%	0.63×	2.47
Juventus over 2.5 goals	32.2%	32.0%	11.9%	2.68×	3.13
Juventus over 3.5 goals	14.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.26×	8.19
Juventus under 0.5 goals	13.6%	12.2%	30.3%	0.40×	8.19

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 1st half	78.3%	76.3%	90.0%	0.85×	1.31
Juventus over 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	62.1%	41.0%	1.51×	1.61
Juventus under 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	37.9%	59.0%	0.64×	2.64
Juventus over 1.5 in 1st half	21.7%	23.7%	10.0%	2.36×	4.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus scores more in 2nd half	41.4%	43.5%	33.1%	1.31×	2.30
Juventus scores equally in both	30.5%	33.2%	43.3%	0.77×	3.02
Juventus scores more in 1st half	28.1%	26.7%	23.8%	1.12×	3.75

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	61.1%	61.9%	39.7%	1.56×	1.62
Lecce (away no bet)	38.9%	38.1%	60.3%	0.63×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus even goals	50.9%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Juventus odd goals	49.1%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.9%	82.9%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.1%	17.1%	12.7%	1.35×	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.8%	57.6%	60.5%	0.95×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.2%	42.4%	39.5%	1.07×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.2%	59.8%	53.6%	1.12×	1.67
Juventus to score 2+ in a row	53.3%	51.0%	27.8%	1.83×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.0%	25.0%	17.8%	1.41×	3.99
Juventus to score 3+ in a row	25.4%	25.0%	7.9%	3.17×	4.00
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	10.9%	12.0%	32.0%	0.37×	8.34
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	1.8%	2.5%	10.0%	0.25×	39.73

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus corners (+3.5)	90.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Juventus corners (+2.5)	84.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Juventus corners (+1.5)	77.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lecce corners (+3.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lecce corners (+2.5)	60.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lecce corners (+1.5)	50.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Juventus corners (-1.5)	49.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Juventus corners (-2.5)	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Juventus corners (-3.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lecce corners (-1.5)	22.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lecce corners (-2.5)	15.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Lecce corners (-3.5)	10.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	71.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	61.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	38.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.0%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
0-2	13.0%	11.5%	6.7%	1.72×	8.71
0-3	8.6%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.51
1-1	9.6%	7.4%	11.8%	0.63×	13.51
1-2	9.5%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
0-0	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
1-3	6.4%	7.4%	2.0%	3.64×	13.51
Any other score	5.3%	7.4%	2.7%	2.69×	13.51
1-0	4.8%	1.7%	10.2%	0.17×	58.29
0-4	4.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.29
1-4	3.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.30
2-0	1.8%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.31
2-1	3.5%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.30
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.31
3-0	0.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.32
3-1	0.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-2	0.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.17×	58.32
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.32
4-1	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.17×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.17×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.17×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2nd half DNB)	78.9%	80.7%	46.3%	1.74×	1.24
Lecce (2nd half DNB)	21.1%	19.3%	53.7%	0.36×	5.17

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT (DNB)	79.4%	75.3%	48.7%	1.55×	1.33
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	20.6%	24.7%	51.3%	0.48×	4.05

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (X2)	87.2%	86.5%	59.9%	1.45×	1.16
Lecce or Juventus (12)	79.8%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Lecce or draw (1X)	33.1%	35.2%	66.4%	0.53×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw at HT	87.6%	88.3%	71.6%	1.23×	1.13
Lecce or Juventus at HT	60.4%	60.9%	55.3%	1.10×	1.64
Lecce or draw at HT	52.1%	47.7%	73.0%	0.65×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (1UP)	87.2%	92.0%	65.4%	1.41×	1.09
Lecce or draw (1UP)	33.1%	38.9%	71.7%	0.54×	2.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw in 2nd half	85.8%	88.5%	65.0%	1.36×	1.13
Lecce or Juventus in 2nd half	67.4%	65.9%	65.1%	1.01×	1.52
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	46.8%	47.9%	69.8%	0.69×	2.09

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.3%	58.8%	63.6%	0.93×	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.7%	41.2%	36.4%	1.13×	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (DNB)	83.9%	80.4%	45.5%	1.77×	1.24
Lecce (DNB)	16.1%	19.6%	54.5%	0.36×	5.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score first	68.3%	69.7%	43.5%	1.60×	1.43
Lecce to score first	25.2%	27.5%	48.7%	0.57×	3.63
No goal scored	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.9%	51.3%	50.8%	1.01×	1.95
Both teams to score	45.1%	48.7%	49.2%	0.99×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.0%	38.5%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	35.5%	38.4%	37.5%	1.02×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	15.9%	21.5%	10.8%	2.00×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	11.8%	0.70×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.0%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.0%	14.4%	13.6%	1.05×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.2%	74.8%	74.7%	1.00×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.8%	25.2%	25.3%	1.00×	3.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.6%	66.0%	62.6%	1.05×	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	20.1%	20.9%	20.6%	1.02×	4.79
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.8%	12.2%	0.88×	9.29
Both score in both halves	3.6%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.8%	83.2%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.2%	16.8%	17.0%	0.99×	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.6%	53.1%	52.7%	1.01×	1.89
A half without a goal	45.4%	46.9%	47.3%	0.99×	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.2%	48.5%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.2%	26.6%	23.9%	1.11×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.3%	22.9%	26.9%	0.85×	4.36
7+ goals	2.2%	1.8%	1.0%	1.93×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score 3+	32.2%	33.8%	11.9%	2.83×	2.96
Juventus to score exactly 1	27.1%	27.4%	34.6%	0.79×	3.65
Juventus to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.4%	23.3%	1.18×	3.65
Juventus to score exactly 0	13.6%	12.9%	30.3%	0.42×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 0	47.8%	37.4%	28.3%	1.32×	2.67
Lecce to score exactly 1	35.3%	35.5%	31.9%	1.11×	2.81
Lecce to score exactly 2	13.0%	14.3%	24.9%	0.58×	6.99
Lecce to score 3+	3.9%	6.2%	15.2%	0.41×	16.17

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT	47.9%	52.3%	27.0%	1.94×	1.91
Draw at HT	39.6%	39.1%	44.7%	0.88×	2.56
Lecce leading at HT	12.4%	11.7%	28.4%	0.41×	8.54

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus -1: 2	41.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Juventus -1: 1	33.1%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Juventus -1: X	25.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:1)	87.2%	89.3%	59.9%	1.49×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	9.3%	9.3%	22.7%	0.41×	10.78
Lecce (0:1)	3.6%	5.7%	17.6%	0.32×	17.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:2)	96.4%	94.2%	82.4%	1.14×	1.06
Draw (0:2)	2.8%	3.7%	10.0%	0.37×	26.72
Lecce (0:2)	0.7%	3.7%	7.6%	0.49×	26.84

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:3)	99.3%	96.7%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.6%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.20
Lecce (0:3)	0.1%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:4)	99.9%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Lecce (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.17
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	82.16

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1:0)	41.8%	43.2%	14.5%	2.99×	2.31
Lecce (1:0)	33.1%	30.1%	66.4%	0.45×	3.32
Draw (1:0)	25.2%	25.0%	19.2%	1.30×	4.01

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (2:0)	58.2%	62.4%	85.5%	0.73×	1.60
Juventus (2:0)	21.2%	18.9%	5.9%	3.23×	5.28
Draw (2:0)	20.6%	18.9%	8.7%	2.16×	5.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.2%	48.7%	46.5%	1.05×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	28.7%	26.2%	26.9%	0.98×	3.81
Halves equal	25.1%	26.2%	26.8%	0.98×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	86.4%	85.5%	69.7%	1.23×	1.17
Lecce clean sheet	13.6%	14.5%	30.3%	0.48×	6.89

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	58.1%	62.1%	41.0%	1.51×	1.61
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	41.9%	37.9%	59.0%	0.64×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 2nd half	67.6%	67.2%	50.2%	1.34×	1.49
Lecce clean sheet in 2nd half	32.4%	32.8%	49.8%	0.66×	3.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 6.5 corners	82.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lecce over 2.5 corners	72.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lecce under 5.5 corners	72.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lecce under 4.5 corners	59.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lecce over 3.5 corners	56.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lecce under 3.5 corners	44.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lecce over 4.5 corners	40.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lecce under 2.5 corners	27.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Lecce over 5.5 corners	27.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Lecce over 6.5 corners	17.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	99.3%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Lecce under 2.5 goals	96.1%	96.4%	84.8%	1.14×	1.04
Lecce under 1.5 goals	83.1%	82.2%	60.1%	1.37×	1.22
Lecce over 0.5 goals	52.2%	53.2%	71.7%	0.74×	1.88
Lecce under 0.5 goals	47.8%	46.8%	28.3%	1.65×	2.14
Lecce over 1.5 goals	16.9%	17.8%	39.9%	0.45×	5.63
Lecce over 2.5 goals	3.9%	3.6%	15.2%	0.24×	27.50
Lecce over 3.5 goals	0.7%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.64

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	96.2%	97.0%	89.4%	1.09×	1.03
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	73.8%	79.5%	57.9%	1.37×	1.26
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	26.2%	20.5%	42.1%	0.49×	4.88
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	3.8%	3.0%	10.6%	0.28×	33.02

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce scores equally in both	54.4%	59.1%	41.6%	1.42×	1.69
Lecce scores more in 2nd half	27.6%	27.9%	36.4%	0.76×	3.59
Lecce scores more in 1st half	18.1%	15.2%	22.1%	0.69×	6.56

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (home no bet)	76.8%	77.8%	56.0%	1.39×	1.29
Draw (home no bet)	23.2%	22.2%	44.0%	0.51×	4.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	61.4%	56.0%	56.3%	0.99×	1.79
Lecce odd goals	38.6%	44.0%	43.7%	1.01×	2.27

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.9%	33.1%	33.9%	0.98×	3.02
HT 0-1	26.9%	28.4%	18.0%	1.58×	3.52
HT 0-2	11.7%	11.0%	5.4%	2.04×	9.11
HT 1-0	9.4%	6.9%	18.5%	0.37×	14.43
HT 1-1	8.2%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.45
Any other HT score	6.2%	6.9%	3.3%	2.06×	14.48
HT 1-2	3.6%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	41.98
HT 2-0	1.4%	2.4%	5.7%	0.41×	42.11
HT 2-1	1.2%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.13
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	0.7%	3.31×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus at HT / Juventus at FT	43.2%	41.8%	19.0%	2.20×	2.40
Draw at HT / Juventus at FT	21.1%	21.6%	12.9%	1.68×	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.9%	12.6%	16.0%	0.79×	7.91
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	6.4%	6.1%	22.0%	0.28×	16.46
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	5.6%	6.1%	16.0%	0.38×	16.48
Juventus at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.83
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.84
Lecce at HT / Juventus at FT	2.6%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.88
Juventus at HT / Lecce at FT	0.9%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score last	68.3%	70.6%	44.2%	1.60×	1.42
Lecce to score last	25.2%	27.2%	48.0%	0.57×	3.67
No goal scored	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.5%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Juventus to lead by 1 at any time	76.6%	78.2%	50.3%	1.55×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.5%	50.8%	44.0%	1.16×	1.97
Juventus to lead by 2 at any time	47.2%	44.4%	20.2%	2.20×	2.25
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	28.3%	25.4%	55.4%	0.46×	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.8%	19.6%	15.1%	1.30×	5.10
Juventus to lead by 3 at any time	23.6%	19.6%	6.5%	3.04×	5.11
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	6.4%	6.7%	24.3%	0.27×	15.00
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%	0.18×	63.80

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus most corners	59.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Lecce most corners	30.6%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	9.7%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.7%	80.6%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.6%	72.4%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.8%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.2%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.3%	48.5%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.5%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
1-2 goals	42.1%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.3%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.2%	30.2%	23.9%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.4%	24.5%	21.7%	1.13×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.0%	14.8%	10.8%	1.38×	6.76
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus never behind	65.2%	68.8%	44.6%	1.54×	1.45
Lecce never behind	16.9%	18.2%	49.7%	0.37×	5.50

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	51.8%	56.6%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.2%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	96.9%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.8%	87.6%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	73.1%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.7%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.4%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	48.6%	47.5%	51.9%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.3%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	26.9%	0.85×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	14.2%	12.4%	11.6%	1.07×	8.05
Under 0.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	3.1%	2.49×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.5%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.3%	81.1%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.9%	67.5%	64.2%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.4%	61.9%	67.7%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.6%	38.1%	32.3%	1.18×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.1%	32.5%	35.8%	0.91×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.7%	18.9%	13.3%	1.42×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.5%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.1%	91.3%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.6%	66.1%	1.04×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.5%	70.3%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.5%	29.7%	1.06×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.4%	33.9%	0.93×	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.5%	11.0%	8.7%	1.26×	9.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.7%	82.2%	0.97×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	79.7%	78.7%	1.01×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	53.3%	56.6%	0.94×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	46.7%	43.4%	1.08×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	20.3%	21.3%	0.95×	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.3%	17.8%	1.14×	4.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	90.8%	90.1%	75.7%	1.19×	1.11
Juventus not to score in both halves	60.7%	63.1%	78.5%	0.80×	1.59
Juventus to score in both halves	39.3%	36.9%	21.5%	1.72×	2.71
Lecce to score in both halves	9.2%	9.9%	24.3%	0.41×	10.07

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.1%	50.7%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Only Juventus scores	41.3%	46.5%	20.6%	2.27×	2.15
Only Lecce scores	7.1%	7.1%	22.6%	0.32×	14.03
Neither team scores	6.5%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.8%	17.5%	19.1%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.1%	17.5%	13.3%	1.32×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.3%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.5%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.15
6 or more goals	5.9%	7.6%	3.1%	2.45×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	36.4%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.9%	35.6%	33.9%	1.05×	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.5%	21.1%	1.01×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.5%	10.9%	8.7%	1.24×	9.22

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.2%	44.7%	43.4%	1.03×	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	21.0%	22.6%	21.3%	1.06×	4.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	98.2%	97.2%	90.0%	1.08×	1.03
Juventus not to win both halves	74.5%	73.5%	91.2%	0.81×	1.36
Juventus to win both halves	25.5%	26.5%	8.8%	3.00×	3.77
Lecce to win both halves	1.8%	2.8%	10.0%	0.27×	36.28

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win either half	75.6%	79.7%	48.4%	1.65×	1.26
Lecce to win neither half	75.2%	79.6%	46.6%	1.71×	1.26
Lecce to win either half	24.9%	20.4%	53.4%	0.38×	4.91
Juventus to win neither half	24.4%	20.3%	51.6%	0.39×	4.92

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	92.9%	92.1%	77.4%	1.19×	1.09
Juventus not to win to nil	58.7%	59.2%	79.5%	0.75×	1.69
Juventus to win to nil	41.3%	40.8%	20.6%	1.98×	2.45
Lecce to win to nil	7.1%	7.9%	22.6%	0.35×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus by 1	25.2%	27.9%	19.2%	1.45×	3.59
Juventus by 3+	21.2%	24.1%	5.9%	4.12×	4.15
Juventus by 2	20.6%	24.1%	8.7%	2.76×	4.15
Draw	20.2%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Lecce by 1	9.3%	7.2%	22.7%	0.32×	13.90
Lecce by 2	2.8%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.84
Lecce by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	36.91