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Lecce v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–2
1.09 – 1.95 xG
Shots
11 – 13
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.25 – 0.86
Goals − xG
-0.41 – -0.08
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Valentín Castellanos 47' — goalTete Morente 49' — goalAdam Marusic 86' — goal
Lecce 1.41 xGLazio 2.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Manuel Lazzari 6' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tete Morente 11' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 13' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tete Morente 13' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Nicolo Rovella 24' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Gustav Isaksen 25' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Manuel Lazzari 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 27' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gustav Isaksen 29' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 41' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 44' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 44' — Blocked Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Boulaye Dia 47' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 47' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Patrick Dorgu 49' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Tete Morente 49' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)Medon Berisha 67' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Ante Rebic 70' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 85' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Adam Marusic 86' — Goal (0.04 xG, From Corner)Matteo Guendouzi 93' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Kaba 94' — Shot On Post (0.51 xG, Set Piece)Santiago Pierotti 94' — Missed Shot (0.62 xG, Set Piece)Tete Morente 96' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)
Lecce attacking right Lazio attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Lazio Manuel Lazzari 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nuno Tavares
11' Lecce Tete Morente 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Hamza Rafia
13' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Medon Berisha
13' Lecce Tete Morente 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
24' Lazio Nicolo Rovella 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
25' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot
25' Lazio Manuel Lazzari 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matteo Guendouzi
27' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
29' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Valentín Castellanos
41' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mario Gila
44' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
44' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Lazio Boulaye Dia 0.13 Open Play Missed Shot Nuno Tavares
47' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.76 Right Foot Goal
49' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
49' Lecce Tete Morente 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Goal
67' Lecce Medon Berisha 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
70' Lecce Ante Rebic 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
85' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.08 Open Play Blocked Shot Pedro
86' Lazio Adam Marusic 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Goal
93' Lazio Matteo Guendouzi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pedro
94' Lecce Mohamed Kaba 0.51 Set Piece Shot On Post Ante Rebic
94' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.62 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
96' Lecce Tete Morente 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Lazio

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Valentín Castellanos FW 90 1 0 5 1 1.62 0.12 1.02
Nicolo Rovella DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.03
Matteo Guendouzi DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.02 0.35
Alessio Romagnoli DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Ivan Provedel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mario Gila DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.19
Manuel Lazzari DR 86 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.21
Mattia Zaccagni AML 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Gustav Isaksen AMR 73 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.31
Nuno Tavares DL 73 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.19
Boulaye Dia AMC 67 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.16
Pedro Sub 23 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.12
Luca Pellegrini Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loum Tchaouna Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Adam Marusic Sub 4 1 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Tijjani Noslin Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Santiago Pierotti FWR 90 0 0 2 0 0.66 0.00 0.03
Tete Morente FWL 90 1 0 4 0 0.14 0.00 0.09
Patrick Dorgu DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.05
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lassana Coulibaly MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Gaby Jean DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Medon Berisha MC 82 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.04
Nikola Krstovic FW 63 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Hamza Rafia MC 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.09
Frederic Guilbert DR 45 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Ante Rebic Sub 27 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.51 0.02
Balthazar Pierret Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mohamed Kaba Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.51 0.00 0.00
Nicola Sansone Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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