Lecce v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 12 Sep 2026, 18:52 UTC

Lecce

3–2

1.95 – 3.09 xG

Monza

Shots

7 – 19

On target

3 – 10

Shots in box

6 – 14

xG per shot

0.28 – 0.17

Set-piece xG

0.66 – 0.63

Goals − xG

+1.05 – -1.25

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 13 Sep, 11:42 · 1h before kick-off

Lecce win

31.1%

model 31.8%

Draw

27.4%

model 27.0%

Monza win

41.5%

model 41.2%

312742

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,485 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
0-1 11.3%
1-0 9.6%
1-2 8.5%
0-0 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.8%	Under 2.5	55.2%
BTTS yes	50.0%	BTTS no	50.0%
Lecce 1+	67.9%	Lecce 2+	31.4%
Monza 1+	73.6%	Monza 2+	38.5%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.33. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1st half highest scoring

Highest scoring half · usually 27%

51.6% fair odds 1.94

strong signal · 311 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 92%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 589 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1578 Elo against 1456.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monza have an estimated 41.5% win probability, against 31.1% for Lecce and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.14 for Lecce and 1.33 for Monza.

Why Lecce

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Lecce average 1.24 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.14 to 1.33. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Monza can win

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1578 Elo against 1456.

Key players

Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.26), Nikola Stulic (0.24). Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.42), Dany Mota (0.29), Ricardo Mangas (0.25).

Availability

2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Monza's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lecce: 36% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Monza: 41% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·

Monza are the model's most likely outcome at 41.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLWLLW last 10 scored 13 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 23.2 xG

Monza are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLDLWLW last 10 scored 16 from 16.2 xG conceded 21 from 17.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	322741	1.14–1.33	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg	342838	1.17–1.24	1-1 13%	43%	49%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	382834	1.24–1.16	1-1 13%	43%	49%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win	44.1%	43.0%	34.0%	1.26×	2.33
Lecce to win	30.3%	30.6%	39.3%	0.78×	3.26
Draw	25.7%	27.7%	26.7%	1.04×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & not both score	23.7%	21.8%	20.8%	1.05×	4.59
Monza & both teams score	20.4%	21.8%	13.4%	1.63×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	18.7%	0.97×	5.55
Lecce & not both score	15.7%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.55
Lecce & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	16.9%	0.79×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.9%	8.3%	8.2%	1.02×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & over 1.5	33.8%	31.0%	24.7%	1.25×	3.22
Monza & under 3.5	30.8%	31.0%	26.6%	1.17×	3.23
Monza & over 2.5	26.1%	26.0%	18.2%	1.43×	3.85
Lecce & over 1.5	22.0%	21.6%	29.0%	0.75×	4.63
Lecce & under 3.5	22.2%	21.6%	29.4%	0.74×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Draw & under 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Monza & under 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.57
Lecce & over 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	22.4%	0.80×	5.57
Lecce & under 2.5	13.1%	12.8%	17.0%	0.75×	7.78
Monza & over 3.5	13.3%	12.8%	7.6%	1.70×	7.78
Monza & under 1.5	10.3%	12.8%	9.5%	1.36×	7.79
Lecce & under 1.5	8.2%	8.0%	10.5%	0.76×	12.55
Lecce & over 3.5	8.0%	8.0%	10.1%	0.79×	12.55
Draw & under 1.5	6.9%	8.0%	8.2%	0.97×	12.55
Draw & over 2.5	6.5%	8.0%	6.9%	1.15×	12.56
Draw & over 3.5	6.5%	8.0%	6.9%	1.15×	12.56

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1UP)	59.6%	58.3%	51.2%	1.14×	1.72
Lecce (1UP)	47.6%	43.3%	54.7%	0.79×	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2UP)	44.1%	47.8%	36.6%	1.31×	2.09
Lecce (2UP)	30.3%	30.7%	41.0%	0.75×	3.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.9%	41.3%	35.8%	1.15×	2.42
Lecce to win 2nd half	29.4%	26.4%	34.7%	0.76×	3.79
Monza to win 2nd half	28.7%	26.4%	29.6%	0.89×	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.9%	86.7%	85.1%	1.02×	1.15
Monza under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.1%	55.4%	50.4%	1.10×	1.80
Monza over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.9%	44.6%	49.6%	0.90×	2.24
Monza over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.1%	13.3%	14.9%	0.89×	7.53

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.6%	87.9%	81.3%	1.08×	1.14
Lecce under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.5%	53.6%	46.3%	1.16×	1.87
Lecce over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.5%	46.4%	53.7%	0.86×	2.15
Lecce over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.4%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.30

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (+2.5)	96.1%	96.3%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Monza (+1.5)	87.6%	88.3%	83.0%	1.06×	1.13
Monza (+0.5)	69.7%	68.7%	60.7%	1.13×	1.46
Lecce (+0.5)	55.9%	56.9%	66.0%	0.86×	1.76
Monza (-0.5)	44.1%	43.1%	34.0%	1.27×	2.32
Lecce (-0.5)	30.3%	31.3%	39.3%	0.80×	3.20
Lecce (-1.5)	12.4%	11.7%	17.0%	0.69×	8.55
Lecce (-2.5)	3.9%	3.7%	7.6%	0.49×	26.96

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	69.4%	72.5%	71.1%	1.02×	1.38
Monza clean sheet	30.6%	27.5%	28.9%	0.95×	3.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	58.3%	58.8%	0.99×	1.71
Monza to concede in 1st half	43.9%	41.7%	41.2%	1.01×	2.40

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 2nd half	54.5%	53.1%	46.3%	1.15×	1.88
Monza to concede in 2nd half	45.5%	46.9%	53.7%	0.87×	2.13

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza over 2.5 corners	79.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Monza under 6.5 corners	74.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Monza over 3.5 corners	64.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Monza under 5.5 corners	63.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Monza over 4.5 corners	50.0%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Monza under 4.5 corners	50.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Monza over 5.5 corners	36.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monza under 3.5 corners	35.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monza over 6.5 corners	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Monza under 2.5 corners	20.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	93.6%	92.2%	97.0%	0.95×	1.09
Monza under 2.5 goals	81.3%	81.2%	88.3%	0.92×	1.23
Monza over 0.5 goals	77.3%	76.2%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Monza under 1.5 goals	56.3%	58.8%	65.3%	0.90×	1.70
Monza over 1.5 goals	43.7%	41.2%	34.7%	1.19×	2.43
Monza under 0.5 goals	22.7%	23.8%	30.6%	0.78×	4.20
Monza over 2.5 goals	18.7%	18.8%	11.7%	1.60×	5.32
Monza over 3.5 goals	6.4%	7.8%	3.0%	2.58×	12.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	77.7%	76.3%	90.0%	0.85×	1.31
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	58.8%	62.6%	41.1%	1.52×	1.60
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	41.2%	37.4%	58.9%	0.64×	2.67
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	22.3%	23.7%	10.0%	2.38×	4.22

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza scores more in 1st half	40.3%	43.8%	23.8%	1.84×	2.29
Monza scores equally in both	36.4%	36.4%	43.6%	0.83×	2.75
Monza scores more in 2nd half	23.3%	22.4%	32.7%	0.69×	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (away no bet)	54.1%	51.4%	59.5%	0.86×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	45.9%	48.6%	40.5%	1.20×	2.06

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	52.6%	52.7%	55.7%	0.94×	1.90
Monza odd goals	47.4%	47.3%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.4%	87.6%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.6%	12.5%	12.9%	0.97×	8.03

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.3%	58.1%	59.6%	0.97×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.7%	41.9%	40.4%	1.04×	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.5%	51.4%	52.8%	0.97×	1.94
Monza to score 2+ in a row	35.5%	36.4%	27.7%	1.31×	2.75
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	19.6%	31.0%	0.63×	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.8%	16.3%	17.4%	0.94×	6.12
Monza to score 3+ in a row	12.3%	12.2%	7.8%	1.56×	8.19
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	9.7%	0.58×	17.80

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza corners (+3.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Monza corners (+2.5)	81.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lecce corners (+3.5)	77.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Monza corners (+1.5)	73.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lecce corners (+2.5)	68.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lecce corners (+1.5)	58.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Monza corners (-1.5)	41.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Monza corners (-2.5)	31.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lecce corners (-1.5)	26.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Monza corners (-3.5)	22.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Lecce corners (-2.5)	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Lecce corners (-3.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.2%	11.4%	11.9%	0.96×	8.80
0-1	10.3%	11.4%	9.5%	1.20×	8.80
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.53
0-0	6.9%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.54
0-2	7.6%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.54
1-0	8.2%	7.4%	10.5%	0.71×	13.54
2-1	7.2%	7.4%	9.2%	0.80×	13.54
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.54
0-3	3.8%	1.7%	3.3%	0.53×	57.56
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	57.57
1-3	4.5%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	57.56
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.30×	57.57
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	57.56
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	57.57
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	6.89×	57.57
3-0	1.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.57
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	57.57
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	57.57
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.97×	57.57
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.89×	57.58
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	57.58
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	57.58
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	57.58
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.89×	57.58
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.89×	57.58
Any other score	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.63×	57.57

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (2nd half DNB)	50.5%	52.8%	53.9%	0.98×	1.90
Monza (2nd half DNB)	49.5%	47.2%	46.1%	1.02×	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	64.3%	65.9%	50.0%	1.32×	1.52
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	35.7%	34.1%	50.0%	0.68×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce or Monza (12)	74.3%	72.3%	73.3%	0.99×	1.38
Monza or draw (X2)	69.7%	69.4%	60.7%	1.14×	1.44
Lecce or draw (1X)	55.9%	57.0%	66.0%	0.86×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	77.4%	79.9%	72.5%	1.10×	1.25
Lecce or Monza at HT	63.4%	62.0%	54.9%	1.13×	1.61
Lecce or draw at HT	59.2%	57.1%	72.5%	0.79×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw (1UP)	69.7%	76.2%	66.3%	1.15×	1.31
Lecce or draw (1UP)	55.9%	62.6%	71.4%	0.88×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	71.3%	73.6%	70.4%	1.05×	1.36
Monza or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	73.6%	65.3%	1.13×	1.36
Lecce or Monza in 2nd half	58.1%	58.7%	64.2%	0.91×	1.71

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.2%	61.6%	64.3%	0.96×	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.8%	38.4%	35.7%	1.08×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (DNB)	59.3%	58.4%	46.4%	1.26×	1.71
Lecce (DNB)	40.7%	41.6%	53.6%	0.78×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score first	51.8%	53.8%	44.1%	1.22×	1.86
Lecce to score first	41.3%	41.7%	47.8%	0.87×	2.40
No goal scored	6.9%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.7%	51.6%	48.7%	1.06×	1.94
Not both teams to score	46.3%	48.4%	51.3%	0.94×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.5%	41.7%	36.9%	1.13×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	38.0%	38.6%	41.0%	0.94×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.3%	11.9%	1.04×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	10.5%	0.80×	11.98

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.5%	85.4%	86.8%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.5%	14.6%	13.2%	1.10×	6.86

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.6%	75.4%	74.7%	1.01×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.4%	24.6%	25.3%	0.97×	4.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.0%	59.4%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 1st half only	20.6%	20.9%	11.7%	1.78×	4.79
Both score 2nd half only	15.1%	15.5%	20.4%	0.76×	6.45
Both score in both halves	5.3%	6.8%	5.0%	1.34×	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.2%	80.0%	83.4%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.8%	20.0%	16.6%	1.20×	5.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.8%	53.4%	51.8%	1.03×	1.87
A half without a goal	46.2%	46.6%	48.2%	0.97×	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	46.9%	47.9%	0.98×	2.13
4-6 goals	25.9%	27.0%	23.6%	1.14×	3.71
0-1 goals	25.5%	27.0%	27.9%	0.97×	3.71
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	0.9%	2.09×	54.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	33.7%	33.7%	34.8%	0.97×	2.97
Monza to score exactly 2	25.0%	22.4%	23.1%	0.97×	4.46
Monza to score exactly 0	22.7%	22.4%	30.6%	0.73×	4.47
Monza to score 3+	18.7%	19.6%	11.7%	1.67×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.5%	32.3%	1.10×	2.81
Lecce to score exactly 0	30.6%	32.6%	28.9%	1.13×	3.07
Lecce to score exactly 2	21.5%	23.4%	24.7%	0.95×	4.27
Lecce to score 3+	11.7%	14.2%	14.4%	0.99×	7.03

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT	40.8%	42.9%	27.5%	1.56×	2.33
Draw at HT	36.6%	38.0%	45.1%	0.84×	2.63
Lecce leading at HT	22.6%	20.1%	27.5%	0.73×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza -1: 1	55.9%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Monza -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Monza -1: 2	21.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:1)	69.7%	65.2%	60.7%	1.07×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.9%	17.8%	22.4%	0.79×	5.62
Lecce (0:1)	12.4%	13.9%	17.0%	0.82×	7.19

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:2)	87.6%	86.9%	83.0%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.4%	7.7%	9.6%	0.80×	13.02
Lecce (0:2)	3.9%	3.8%	7.6%	0.50×	26.59

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:3)	96.1%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.9%	2.4%	4.5%	0.52×	42.31
Lecce (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.39

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.08
Lecce (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (1:0)	55.9%	58.5%	66.0%	0.89×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	22.4%	21.7%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Monza (1:0)	21.7%	21.7%	14.3%	1.52×	4.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (2:0)	78.3%	80.1%	85.8%	0.93×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	13.2%	10.4%	8.6%	1.21×	9.62
Monza (2:0)	8.4%	6.5%	5.8%	1.13×	15.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	43.2%	48.8%	26.7%	1.83×	2.05
2nd half highest scoring	31.1%	29.5%	46.5%	0.63×	3.39
Halves equal	25.7%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	77.3%	76.5%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Lecce clean sheet	22.7%	23.5%	30.6%	0.77×	4.25

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	58.8%	62.6%	41.1%	1.52×	1.60
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	41.2%	37.4%	58.9%	0.64×	2.67

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce clean sheet in 2nd half	55.1%	55.6%	50.4%	1.10×	1.80
Lecce to concede in 2nd half	44.9%	44.4%	49.6%	0.90×	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 6.5 corners	84.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lecce under 5.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lecce over 2.5 corners	70.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lecce under 4.5 corners	61.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Lecce over 3.5 corners	53.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lecce under 3.5 corners	46.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lecce over 4.5 corners	38.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Lecce under 2.5 corners	29.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Lecce over 5.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Lecce over 6.5 corners	16.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	96.8%	96.3%	95.5%	1.01×	1.04
Lecce under 2.5 goals	88.3%	87.3%	85.6%	1.02×	1.15
Lecce over 0.5 goals	69.4%	67.9%	71.1%	0.95×	1.47
Lecce under 1.5 goals	66.8%	67.8%	61.0%	1.11×	1.47
Lecce over 1.5 goals	33.2%	32.2%	39.0%	0.83×	3.11
Lecce under 0.5 goals	30.6%	32.1%	28.9%	1.11×	3.11
Lecce over 2.5 goals	11.7%	12.7%	14.4%	0.89×	7.84
Lecce over 3.5 goals	3.2%	3.7%	4.5%	0.82×	27.02

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.9%	90.2%	1.00×	1.11
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	58.0%	58.8%	0.99×	1.73
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	42.0%	41.2%	1.02×	2.38
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.2%	9.8%	1.03×	9.85

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce scores equally in both	42.3%	42.5%	42.2%	1.01×	2.35
Lecce scores more in 2nd half	29.8%	28.1%	36.4%	0.77×	3.56
Lecce scores more in 1st half	28.0%	28.1%	21.4%	1.31×	3.56

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (home no bet)	63.2%	60.0%	56.0%	1.07×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.8%	40.0%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	54.7%	50.5%	56.6%	0.89×	1.98
Lecce odd goals	45.3%	49.5%	43.4%	1.14×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.1%	24.2%	34.3%	0.70×	4.14
HT 0-1	20.5%	24.1%	18.4%	1.31×	4.15
HT 1-0	13.4%	10.9%	18.3%	0.60×	9.16
HT 1-1	11.8%	10.9%	10.5%	1.04×	9.17
HT 0-2	9.1%	7.2%	5.4%	1.32×	13.99
Any other HT score	8.0%	7.1%	3.0%	2.36×	14.00
HT 1-2	5.3%	7.1%	2.6%	2.69×	14.04
HT 2-0	3.9%	2.3%	5.5%	0.42×	43.25
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	2.3%	1.02×	43.28
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.3%	0.6%	3.65×	43.42

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	32.3%	32.7%	19.3%	1.70×	3.06
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	17.4%	16.8%	21.3%	0.79×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.7%	16.6%	1.01×	5.98
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	10.7%	12.6%	15.8%	0.80×	7.91
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	10.5%	12.6%	13.0%	0.97×	7.91
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	6.4%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.56
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	4.4%	0.78×	28.97
Monza at HT / Lecce at FT	2.2%	3.4%	2.5%	1.37×	29.04
Lecce at HT / Monza at FT	1.3%	3.4%	2.0%	1.71×	29.07

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score last	51.8%	51.9%	43.5%	1.19×	1.93
Lecce to score last	41.3%	40.0%	48.4%	0.83×	2.50
No goal scored	6.9%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.1%	92.6%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	59.6%	55.2%	51.2%	1.08×	1.81
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	47.6%	44.0%	54.7%	0.80×	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.4%	43.9%	42.6%	1.03×	2.28
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	27.9%	25.6%	20.2%	1.27×	3.91
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	17.8%	14.9%	22.8%	0.65×	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	14.6%	1.02×	6.72
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	6.4%	1.62×	9.60
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	5.3%	6.6%	8.3%	0.80×	15.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza most corners	52.7%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Lecce most corners	36.3%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.5%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.5%	80.6%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.6%	72.3%	71.4%	1.01×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.1%	68.8%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.2%	68.8%	67.6%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.2%	60.9%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.9%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.4%	47.9%	1.01×	2.07
3-5 goals	44.4%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.2%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.6%	39.3%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.9%	30.6%	23.6%	1.30×	3.26
4-5 goals	22.5%	24.8%	21.6%	1.15×	4.03
5-6 goals	11.3%	15.0%	10.6%	1.42×	6.66
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	0.9%	2.91×	38.98

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza never behind	45.5%	56.5%	45.3%	1.25×	1.77
Lecce never behind	33.5%	35.6%	48.8%	0.73×	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	51.0%	51.7%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.0%	48.3%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.7%	51.6%	56.7%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.3%	48.4%	43.3%	1.12×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.5%	52.0%	51.3%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.5%	48.0%	48.7%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.6%	92.2%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	91.8%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.8%	87.5%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.5%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	75.7%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.2%	52.9%	52.7%	1.00×	1.89
Over 2.5 goals	49.8%	47.1%	47.3%	1.00×	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	27.9%	27.6%	24.3%	1.14×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	25.5%	27.6%	27.9%	0.99×	3.62
Over 4.5 goals	13.2%	12.5%	11.3%	1.11×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	8.2%	0.95×	12.85
Over 5.5 goals	5.4%	7.8%	2.9%	2.68×	12.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.1%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.1%	92.4%	96.8%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.5%	80.6%	87.0%	0.93×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.2%	67.6%	62.9%	1.07×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.3%	61.7%	68.4%	0.90×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.7%	38.3%	31.6%	1.21×	2.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.8%	32.4%	37.1%	0.87×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.5%	19.4%	13.0%	1.49×	5.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.9%	7.6%	3.2%	2.40×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.9%	0.9%	3.17×	35.01

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.8%	86.2%	91.8%	0.94×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.9%	78.8%	65.7%	1.20×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.0%	62.8%	70.7%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.1%	37.2%	29.3%	1.27×	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.1%	21.2%	34.3%	0.62×	4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.2%	13.8%	8.2%	1.68×	7.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.9%	85.4%	82.2%	1.04×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.0%	67.9%	77.9%	0.87×	1.47
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.2%	67.6%	56.7%	1.19×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.8%	32.4%	43.3%	0.75×	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.0%	32.1%	22.1%	1.46×	3.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.1%	14.6%	17.8%	0.82×	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	80.0%	84.3%	76.2%	1.11×	1.19
Monza not to score in both halves	73.6%	73.7%	78.7%	0.94×	1.36
Monza to score in both halves	26.4%	26.3%	21.3%	1.23×	3.80
Lecce to score in both halves	20.0%	15.7%	23.8%	0.66×	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.7%	54.3%	48.7%	1.12×	1.84
Only Monza scores	23.7%	22.0%	20.8%	1.06×	4.54
Only Lecce scores	15.7%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.27
Neither team scores	6.9%	7.1%	8.2%	0.86×	14.12

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.7%	22.4%	25.0%	0.90×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.4%	23.1%	0.97×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	18.5%	17.5%	19.8%	0.89×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	14.7%	12.1%	13.1%	0.92×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	7.8%	7.8%	8.6%	0.90×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	6.9%	7.8%	8.2%	0.95×	12.89
6 or more goals	5.4%	7.8%	2.9%	2.67×	12.90

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.9%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	24.8%	21.8%	21.2%	1.03×	4.60
No goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.7%	34.3%	0.63×	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	18.2%	15.2%	8.2%	1.85×	6.59

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.1%	40.1%	34.8%	1.15×	2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.8%	33.3%	43.3%	0.77×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	30.0%	33.2%	22.1%	1.50×	3.01

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	93.4%	94.0%	90.3%	1.04×	1.06
Monza not to win both halves	88.3%	87.9%	91.3%	0.96×	1.14
Monza to win both halves	11.7%	12.1%	8.7%	1.39×	8.24
Lecce to win both halves	6.6%	6.0%	9.7%	0.62×	16.66

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win either half	57.8%	59.6%	48.4%	1.23×	1.68
Lecce to win neither half	54.7%	55.0%	47.5%	1.16×	1.82
Lecce to win either half	45.3%	45.0%	52.5%	0.86×	2.22
Monza to win neither half	42.2%	40.4%	51.6%	0.78×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	84.3%	83.2%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Monza not to win to nil	76.3%	78.3%	79.2%	0.99×	1.28
Monza to win to nil	23.7%	21.7%	20.8%	1.04×	4.62
Lecce to win to nil	15.7%	16.8%	22.6%	0.74×	5.95

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.7%	27.7%	26.7%	1.04×	3.61
Monza by 1	22.4%	24.1%	19.9%	1.21×	4.15
Lecce by 1	17.9%	16.9%	22.4%	0.75×	5.91
Monza by 2	13.2%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.50
Monza by 3+	8.4%	7.3%	5.8%	1.25×	13.78
Lecce by 2	8.4%	7.3%	9.6%	0.76×	13.79
Lecce by 3+	3.9%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.57

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Lecce 1.95 xGMonza 3.25 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lecce attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Lecce	Lassana Coulibaly	0.18	From Corner	—	Goal	Ivan Ilic
8'	Monza	Lorenzo Lucchesi	0.46	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Michael Folorunsho
10'	Lecce	Tiago Gabriel	0.41	From Corner	—	Goal	Ivan Ilic
16'	Monza	Andrea Colpani	0.46	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Gustavo Varela
16'	Monza	Gustavo Varela	0.40	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
16'	Monza	Jay Robinson	0.41	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Gustavo Varela
19'	Monza	Ricardo Mangas	0.68	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Samuele Birindelli
20'	Lecce	Lassana Coulibaly	0.60	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
20'	Lecce	Lassana Coulibaly	0.57	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Danilo Veiga
24'	Monza	Andrea Colpani	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
30'	Monza	Gustavo Varela	0.30	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Ricardo Mangas
32'	Monza	Jay Robinson	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Gustavo Varela
34'	Monza	Andrea Colpani	0.05	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
38'	Monza	Michael Folorunsho	0.01	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Andrea Colpani
47'	Lecce	Youssef Maleh	0.07	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
52'	Lecce	Youssef Maleh	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
56'	Monza	Jay Robinson	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Michael Folorunsho
62'	Monza	Samuele Birindelli	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
66'	Monza	Adam Bakoune	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Samuele Birindelli
78'	Monza	Patrick Cutrone	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
79'	Lecce	Amar Ahmed Fatah	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
86'	Monza	Patrick Cutrone	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
88'	Monza	Exequiel Zeballos	0.05	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Goal	—
91'	Monza	Exequiel Zeballos	0.01	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Samuele Birindelli
92'	Monza	Andrea Carboni	0.02	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Omari Forson
93'	Monza	Mathis Mout	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

Monza

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Lorenzo Lucchesi DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.46	0.00	0.77
Samuele Birindelli DMR	90	0	1	1	3	0.03	0.74	0.84
Andrea Carboni DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.33
Michael Folorunsho MC	90	0	0	1	2	0.01	0.50	1.14
Demba Thiam GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Eddy Kouadio DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.68
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC	86	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.12	1.20
Gustavo Varela FW	77	0	0	2	3	0.71	0.96	1.72
Andrea Colpani AMC	66	0	0	3	1	0.61	0.01	0.65
Jay Robinson AMC	66	0	0	3	0	0.54	0.00	1.65
Ricardo Mangas DML	48	1	0	1	1	0.68	0.30	1.50
Adam Bakoune Sub	42	0	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.05
Patrick Cutrone Sub	24	0	0	2	0	0.07	0.00	0.05
Exequiel Zeballos Sub	24	1	0	2	0	0.06	0.00	0.05
Omari Forson Sub	13	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.00
Mathis Mout Sub	4	0	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	0.01

Lecce

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Lassana Coulibaly MC	90	2	0	3	0	1.35	0.00	1.17
Tiago Gabriel DC	90	1	0	1	0	0.41	0.00	0.00
Antonino Gallo DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Wladimiro Falcone GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jamil Siebert DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Danilo Veiga DR	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.57	0.57
Youssef Maleh MC	87	0	0	2	0	0.16	0.00	0.12
Joël Monteiro FWL	76	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nikola Stulic FW	76	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ivan Ilic MC	68	0	2	0	2	0.00	0.59	0.00
Konan N’Dri FWR	48	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.57
Santiago Pierotti Sub	42	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Oumar Ngom Sub	22	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.03
Amar Ahmed Fatah Sub	14	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Paco Esteban Sub	14	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mohamed Kaba Sub	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Lecce v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Lecce

Why the draw is live

Why Monza can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Monza

Lecce

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