Lecce v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 12 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 5
On target
3 – 0
Shots in box
15 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.84 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-1.80 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
31.4%
Draw
35.1%
Pisa win
33.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Draw ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–1.29 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 2.80 xGPisa 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lecce |
Riccardo Sottil | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 16' |
 Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Lecce |
Riccardo Sottil | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 17' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 18' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 18' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 19' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 26' |
Lecce |
Corrie Ndaba | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 27' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 30' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Francesco Camarda |
| 37' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Camarda |
| 43' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 46' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 58' |
Lecce |
Riccardo Sottil | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 65' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 65' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Lecce |
Corrie Ndaba | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 68' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Corrie Ndaba |
| 69' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 70' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lameck Banda |
| 76' |
Pisa |
Lorran | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 86' |
Pisa |
Isak Vural | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 93' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 94' |
Pisa |
Simone Canestrelli | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Michel Aebischer |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.82 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Corrie Ndaba DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Riccardo Sottil ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0.07 | 0.76 | 0.22 |
| Santiago Pierotti MR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Francesco Camarda FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.10 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Tete Morente Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Antonino Gallo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Medon Berisha MC | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak Vural MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Henrik Meister FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehdi Leris DML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Moreo FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arturo Calabresi DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Albiol Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Matteo Tramoni Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Samuele Angori Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Lorran Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Louis Buffon Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |