Lecce v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 6 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 10
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
2 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.75
Goals − xG
-0.60 – +0.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
14.9%
Draw
31.7%
Roma win
53.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Roma are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWDDWD last 10
scored 23
from 25.5 xG
conceded 6
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.62–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.93–1.68 | 0-1 12% | 48% | 49% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 0.60 xGRoma 1.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 24' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 36' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 41' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konan N’Dri |
| 60' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 60' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 65' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 66' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 68' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 70' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.63 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 70' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thórir Helgason |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| Wesley MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Ziólkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paulo Dybala FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.05 | 0.59 |
| Evan Ferguson FW | 60 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy ML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Romano Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| Ylber Ramadani MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Francesco Camarda FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Riccardo Sottil FWL | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lameck Banda FWR | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Olaf Gorter Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |