Lecce v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 31 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 15
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
3 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.20 – -0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
15.1%
Draw
23.4%
Roma win
61.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Roma are finishing above their chances — 2.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWDWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.4 xG
conceded 8
from 8.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.69–1.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.95–1.82 | 0-1 11% | 52% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 1.20 xGRoma 4.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
 Lecce |
Willem Geubbels | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Olaf Gorter |
| 11' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 22' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Wesley |
| 24' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 24' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emanuele Lulli |
| 37' |
Lecce |
Willem Geubbels | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 39' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 43' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 46' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 49' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 57' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 60' |
Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.77 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Mora |
| 64' |
Roma |
Rodrigo Mora | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gianluca Mancini |
| 74' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Lulli |
| 76' |
Lecce |
Youssef Maleh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amar Ahmed Fatah |
| 76' |
Roma |
Santiago Castro | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 87' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ivan Ilic |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.69 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Emanuele Lulli DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.84 |
| Paulo Dybala AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.70 | 2.32 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 70 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.14 | 0.11 | 3.29 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.91 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.07 | 2.07 |
| Wesley DML | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| Rodrigo Mora Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 1.05 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marten de Roon Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Corrie Ndaba DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Pierotti FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Oumar Ngom MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Olaf Gorter MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Youssef Maleh Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Amar Ahmed Fatah Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |