Lecce v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.67 – -0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
24.4%
Draw
30.8%
Sassuolo win
44.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.39 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 0.67 xGSassuolo 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 12' |
Lecce |
Danilo Veiga | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 17' |
 Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 21' |
Sassuolo |
Aster Vranckx | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 22' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 30' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 34' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 36' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 39' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 51' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 62' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 69' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 75' |
Lecce |
Thórir Helgason | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 82' |
Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 90' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Nicholas Pierini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Walid Cheddira | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Ylber Ramadani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.47 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Tete Morente FWL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Medon Berisha MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Santiago Pierotti FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Balthazar Pierret Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Filippo Romagna DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Nicholas Pierini Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Fali Candé Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |