Lecce v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lecce

14:00 UTC

Sassuolo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,251h before kick-off

Lecce win

27.8%

model 29.7%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.6%

Sassuolo win

49.2%

model 46.7%

282349

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.3%
0-1 8.2%
2-1 7.2%
0-2 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.7%	Under 2.5	41.3%
BTTS yes	60.3%	BTTS no	39.7%
Lecce 1+	73.5%	Lecce 2+	38.3%
Sassuolo 1+	82.1%	Sassuolo 2+	51.3%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.72. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Sassuolo over 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 35%

51.1% fair odds 1.96

strong signal · 624 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sassuolo over 0.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 70%

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sassuolo carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1480.
Sassuolo have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.32.
Away from home Sassuolo average 1.94 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sassuolo have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for Lecce and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Lecce and 1.72 for Sassuolo.

Why Lecce

Lecce have created 1.60 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.89. At home Lecce average 1.44 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Sassuolo can win

Sassuolo carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1480. Sassuolo have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.32. Away from home Sassuolo average 1.94 xG a match.

Key players

Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.24), Nikola Stulic (0.23). Sassuolo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Armand Lauriente (0.43), Domenico Berardi (0.38), Andrea Pinamonti (0.34).

Availability

2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Sassuolo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Sassuolo's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lecce: 44% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.48 xG a match from set pieces. Sassuolo: 49% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sassuolo are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLWLLW last 10 scored 13 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 23.2 xG

Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLLLWDWLDL last 10 scored 15 from 18.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	302447	1.33–1.72	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	322444	1.34–1.61	1-1 11%	56%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to win	44.9%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Lecce to win	31.2%	30.4%	40.0%	0.76×	3.29
Draw	23.9%	24.4%	26.4%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo & both teams score	24.0%	21.8%	13.2%	1.65×	4.58
Sassuolo & not both score	21.0%	21.8%	20.6%	1.06×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Lecce & both teams score	17.2%	18.0%	17.5%	1.02×	5.57
Lecce & not both score	14.0%	13.3%	22.6%	0.59×	7.53
Draw & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo & over 1.5	36.8%	34.9%	24.6%	1.42×	2.87
Sassuolo & over 2.5	30.0%	30.8%	18.1%	1.69×	3.25
Sassuolo & under 3.5	27.9%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Lecce & over 1.5	24.6%	21.6%	29.9%	0.72×	4.63
Lecce & over 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	23.3%	0.93×	4.63
Lecce & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	29.6%	0.73×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Sassuolo & over 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	7.5%	2.41×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.9%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Sassuolo & under 2.5	14.9%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Lecce & under 2.5	11.1%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Lecce & over 3.5	10.7%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Sassuolo & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Lecce & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (1UP)	61.9%	62.8%	50.5%	1.24×	1.59
Lecce (1UP)	50.2%	52.5%	55.3%	0.95×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (2UP)	44.9%	47.3%	36.2%	1.31×	2.11
Lecce (2UP)	31.2%	30.4%	41.8%	0.73×	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to win 2nd half	37.4%	36.1%	30.2%	1.20×	2.77
2nd half drawn	36.4%	36.1%	35.0%	1.03×	2.77
Lecce to win 2nd half	26.3%	25.7%	35.0%	0.74×	3.89

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.1%	85.1%	0.93×	1.26
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	54.6%	50.0%	1.09×	1.83
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	45.4%	50.0%	0.91×	2.20
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.9%	14.9%	1.40×	4.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.8%	88.2%	81.5%	1.08×	1.13
Lecce under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	55.1%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Lecce over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	44.9%	53.7%	0.84×	2.23
Lecce over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.2%	11.8%	18.5%	0.64×	8.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Sassuolo (+1.5)	86.3%	88.5%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
Sassuolo (+0.5)	68.8%	68.7%	60.0%	1.15×	1.46
Lecce (+0.5)	55.1%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Sassuolo (-0.5)	44.9%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Lecce (-0.5)	31.2%	31.3%	40.0%	0.78×	3.19
Lecce (-1.5)	13.7%	11.5%	17.5%	0.66×	8.66
Lecce (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	26.99

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede	74.1%	76.7%	71.6%	1.07×	1.30
Sassuolo clean sheet	25.9%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede in 1st half	50.0%	50.5%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Sassuolo clean sheet in 1st half	50.0%	49.6%	57.9%	0.86×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo clean sheet in 2nd half	51.7%	54.8%	46.3%	1.18×	1.83
Sassuolo to concede in 2nd half	48.3%	45.2%	53.7%	0.84×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 6.5 corners	81.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Sassuolo over 2.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sassuolo under 5.5 corners	72.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sassuolo under 4.5 corners	59.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sassuolo over 3.5 corners	56.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sassuolo under 3.5 corners	43.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Sassuolo over 4.5 corners	40.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Sassuolo over 5.5 corners	27.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sassuolo under 2.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sassuolo over 6.5 corners	18.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 3.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Sassuolo over 0.5 goals	81.1%	81.4%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Sassuolo under 2.5 goals	76.6%	76.3%	88.1%	0.87×	1.31
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals	50.4%	53.5%	65.0%	0.82×	1.87
Sassuolo over 1.5 goals	49.7%	46.5%	35.0%	1.33×	2.15
Sassuolo over 2.5 goals	23.4%	23.7%	11.9%	2.00×	4.21
Sassuolo under 0.5 goals	18.9%	18.6%	30.4%	0.61×	5.39
Sassuolo over 3.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	2.9%	2.66×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 1st half	80.2%	82.7%	89.9%	0.92×	1.21
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	61.9%	41.2%	1.50×	1.62
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	38.1%	58.8%	0.65×	2.62
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 1st half	19.8%	17.3%	10.1%	1.71×	5.78

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo scores equally in both	34.5%	33.7%	43.4%	0.78×	2.97
Sassuolo scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.7%	32.8%	1.03×	2.97
Sassuolo scores more in 1st half	31.9%	33.6%	23.9%	1.41×	2.97

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (away no bet)	56.6%	57.4%	60.2%	0.95×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.4%	42.6%	39.8%	1.07×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo even goals	51.8%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Sassuolo odd goals	48.2%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.2%	82.6%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.8%	17.4%	12.7%	1.36×	5.75

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.2%	68.6%	60.2%	1.14×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.8%	31.4%	39.8%	0.79×	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.9%	60.0%	53.4%	1.13×	1.67
Sassuolo to score 2+ in a row	40.0%	38.6%	27.8%	1.39×	2.59
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	29.1%	25.2%	31.7%	0.80×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	19.6%	17.9%	1.10×	5.09
Sassuolo to score 3+ in a row	14.9%	12.1%	7.9%	1.53×	8.26
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	8.6%	5.6%	10.1%	0.55×	17.86

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce corners (+3.5)	88.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lecce corners (+2.5)	82.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lecce corners (+1.5)	74.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Sassuolo corners (+3.5)	74.2%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Sassuolo corners (+2.5)	65.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Sassuolo corners (+1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Lecce corners (-1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Lecce corners (-2.5)	34.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lecce corners (-3.5)	25.8%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Sassuolo corners (-1.5)	25.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Sassuolo corners (-2.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Sassuolo corners (-3.5)	11.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	29.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-2	9.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
0-1	8.1%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
0-2	6.8%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
1-0	6.6%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.51
2-1	7.4%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-3	5.1%	7.4%	2.0%	3.62×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-0	4.9%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.29
0-3	3.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.31
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-0	4.5%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.29
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
3-0	2.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.32
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	4.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (2nd half DNB)	58.7%	59.7%	46.3%	1.29×	1.68
Lecce (2nd half DNB)	41.3%	40.3%	53.7%	0.75×	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo leading at HT (DNB)	55.8%	57.1%	48.9%	1.17×	1.75
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	44.2%	42.9%	51.1%	0.84×	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce or Sassuolo (12)	76.1%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Sassuolo or draw (X2)	68.8%	69.6%	60.0%	1.16×	1.44
Lecce or draw (1X)	55.1%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo or draw at HT	71.9%	75.1%	71.6%	1.05×	1.33
Lecce or draw at HT	64.6%	61.6%	72.8%	0.85×	1.62
Lecce or Sassuolo at HT	63.5%	61.6%	55.4%	1.11×	1.62

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo or draw (1UP)	68.8%	76.3%	65.5%	1.17×	1.31
Lecce or draw (1UP)	55.1%	62.9%	71.6%	0.88×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo or draw in 2nd half	73.7%	74.3%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Lecce or Sassuolo in 2nd half	63.6%	63.9%	65.0%	0.98×	1.57
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	62.6%	63.9%	69.8%	0.91×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.6%	58.5%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.4%	41.5%	36.5%	1.14×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (DNB)	59.0%	58.1%	45.7%	1.27×	1.72
Lecce (DNB)	41.0%	41.9%	54.3%	0.77×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score first	52.5%	53.4%	43.6%	1.22×	1.87
Lecce to score first	42.6%	41.7%	48.6%	0.86×	2.40
No goal scored	4.9%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.15

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.1%	56.6%	49.2%	1.15×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.9%	43.4%	50.8%	0.85×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.1%	44.4%	37.4%	1.19×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	30.9%	34.5%	40.1%	0.86×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.6%	82.6%	86.5%	0.95×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.4%	17.4%	13.5%	1.30×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.4%	73.8%	74.9%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.6%	26.2%	25.1%	1.04×	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.2%	54.8%	62.7%	0.87×	1.83
Both score 1st half only	20.2%	21.0%	12.3%	1.71×	4.76
Both score 2nd half only	19.9%	15.2%	20.3%	0.75×	6.60
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.1%	79.6%	82.9%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	27.9%	20.4%	17.1%	1.20×	4.89

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.7%	59.6%	52.8%	1.13×	1.68
A half without a goal	39.3%	40.4%	47.2%	0.85×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.7%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	32.3%	30.7%	23.8%	1.29×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.6%	20.3%	27.0%	0.75×	4.94
7+ goals	3.4%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score exactly 1	31.5%	33.8%	34.7%	0.97×	2.96
Sassuolo to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	23.2%	1.18×	3.66
Sassuolo to score 3+	23.4%	22.3%	11.9%	1.87×	4.48
Sassuolo to score exactly 0	18.9%	19.6%	30.4%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 1	35.0%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Lecce to score exactly 0	25.9%	26.5%	28.4%	0.94×	3.77
Lecce to score exactly 2	23.7%	23.3%	24.8%	0.94×	4.29
Lecce to score 3+	15.5%	18.8%	15.0%	1.25×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	36.5%	38.4%	44.6%	0.86×	2.61
Sassuolo leading at HT	35.4%	38.4%	27.2%	1.41×	2.61
Lecce leading at HT	28.1%	24.9%	28.4%	0.88×	4.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo -1: 1	55.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Sassuolo -1: 2	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Sassuolo -1: X	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:1)	68.8%	65.3%	60.0%	1.09×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.4%	17.8%	22.6%	0.79×	5.61
Lecce (0:1)	13.7%	13.7%	17.5%	0.78×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:2)	86.3%	87.1%	82.5%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.03
Lecce (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.58

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.4%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.04
Lecce (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.99
Lecce (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (1:0)	55.1%	58.2%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Sassuolo (1:0)	23.4%	21.7%	14.4%	1.50×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	21.5%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (2:0)	76.6%	80.4%	85.6%	0.94×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.6%	10.3%	8.7%	1.19×	9.71
Sassuolo (2:0)	9.9%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	38.0%	38.0%	27.0%	1.40×	2.63
2nd half highest scoring	37.8%	37.8%	46.2%	0.82×	2.65
Halves equal	24.2%	24.4%	26.9%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	81.1%	80.8%	69.6%	1.16×	1.24
Lecce clean sheet	18.9%	19.2%	30.4%	0.63×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	55.9%	61.9%	41.2%	1.50×	1.62
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	44.1%	38.1%	58.8%	0.65×	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 2nd half	57.2%	54.9%	50.0%	1.10×	1.82
Lecce clean sheet in 2nd half	42.8%	45.1%	50.0%	0.90×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce over 2.5 corners	82.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lecce over 3.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lecce under 6.5 corners	68.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lecce under 5.5 corners	57.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lecce over 4.5 corners	56.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lecce under 4.5 corners	44.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lecce over 5.5 corners	42.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lecce over 6.5 corners	31.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lecce under 3.5 corners	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lecce under 2.5 corners	17.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Lecce under 2.5 goals	84.5%	82.2%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
Lecce over 0.5 goals	74.1%	74.3%	71.6%	1.04×	1.35
Lecce under 1.5 goals	60.8%	63.6%	60.3%	1.05×	1.57
Lecce over 1.5 goals	39.2%	36.4%	39.7%	0.92×	2.75
Lecce under 0.5 goals	25.9%	25.7%	28.4%	0.91×	3.88
Lecce over 2.5 goals	15.5%	17.8%	15.0%	1.18×	5.62
Lecce over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	84.7%	83.9%	89.3%	0.94×	1.19
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	50.0%	50.2%	42.1%	1.19×	1.99
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	50.0%	49.8%	57.9%	0.86×	2.01
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	15.3%	16.2%	10.7%	1.51×	6.19

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce scores equally in both	39.1%	37.9%	41.7%	0.91×	2.64
Lecce scores more in 1st half	31.5%	32.9%	22.2%	1.48×	3.04
Lecce scores more in 2nd half	29.4%	27.9%	36.2%	0.77×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (home no bet)	65.3%	64.1%	56.0%	1.14×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	34.7%	35.9%	44.0%	0.82×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	53.3%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Lecce odd goals	46.7%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.1%	24.4%	33.8%	0.72×	4.10
HT 0-1	18.1%	18.6%	18.1%	1.02×	5.38
HT 1-0	15.3%	18.5%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
HT 1-1	12.5%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.07
Any other HT score	8.2%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.47
HT 0-2	7.4%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.49
HT 2-0	5.3%	6.9%	5.8%	1.19×	14.52
HT 1-2	5.1%	6.9%	2.6%	2.60×	14.52
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.00
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo at HT / Sassuolo at FT	28.5%	27.3%	19.1%	1.43×	3.67
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	19.8%	16.7%	22.0%	0.76×	5.97
Draw at HT / Sassuolo at FT	13.6%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.91
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	9.6%	6.0%	15.9%	0.38×	16.56
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	4.7%	1.28×	16.67
Sassuolo at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.69
Lecce at HT / Sassuolo at FT	2.8%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.66
Sassuolo at HT / Lecce at FT	1.8%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score last	52.5%	52.1%	44.0%	1.19×	1.92
Lecce to score last	42.6%	40.0%	48.2%	0.83×	2.50
No goal scored	4.9%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.15

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.1%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Sassuolo to lead by 1 at any time	61.9%	61.4%	50.5%	1.22×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.7%	50.8%	43.6%	1.16×	1.97
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	50.2%	50.8%	55.3%	0.92×	1.97
Sassuolo to lead by 2 at any time	30.8%	29.8%	20.2%	1.48×	3.36
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	20.2%	19.6%	23.9%	0.82×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.1%	15.0%	15.1%	0.99×	6.68
Sassuolo to lead by 3 at any time	12.5%	10.5%	6.5%	1.61×	9.56
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	6.7%	6.7%	8.8%	0.76×	14.94

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce most corners	55.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Sassuolo most corners	34.4%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.9%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.3%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.4%	59.1%	67.5%	0.87×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.7%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.5%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.7%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.0%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.3%	35.2%	23.8%	1.48×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.1%	30.2%	21.8%	1.39×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.4%	18.8%	10.6%	1.78×	5.31
7+ goals	3.4%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.07

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo never behind	44.9%	48.6%	44.7%	1.09×	2.06
Lecce never behind	33.2%	36.3%	49.5%	0.73×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.6%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.4%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.2%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.4%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.3%	61.7%	75.4%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.1%	58.6%	48.1%	1.22×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.9%	41.4%	51.9%	0.80×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.7%	38.3%	24.6%	1.55×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.6%	17.7%	27.0%	0.66×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.8%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.4%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.4%	75.9%	86.8%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.8%	72.4%	64.0%	1.13×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.0%	51.9%	67.8%	0.77×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.0%	48.1%	32.2%	1.49×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.2%	27.6%	36.0%	0.77×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.6%	24.1%	13.2%	1.83×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.6%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.6%	85.7%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.9%	78.2%	66.2%	1.18×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.4%	63.5%	70.1%	0.91×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	44.6%	36.5%	29.9%	1.22×	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.1%	21.8%	33.8%	0.65×	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.4%	14.3%	8.8%	1.63×	7.00

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	83.1%	82.5%	1.01×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.9%	79.4%	78.6%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.5%	54.8%	57.0%	0.96×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.5%	45.2%	43.0%	1.05×	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.1%	20.6%	21.4%	0.96×	4.85
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	16.9%	17.5%	0.96×	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.4%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
Sassuolo not to score in both halves	68.0%	69.9%	78.4%	0.89×	1.43
Sassuolo to score in both halves	32.0%	30.1%	21.6%	1.39×	3.32
Lecce to score in both halves	24.1%	21.7%	24.2%	0.90×	4.62

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.1%	60.2%	49.2%	1.23×	1.66
Only Sassuolo scores	21.0%	22.2%	20.6%	1.08×	4.50
Only Lecce scores	14.0%	11.0%	22.6%	0.49×	9.05
Neither team scores	4.9%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.64

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	22.3%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.9%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.7%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.2%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	8.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.9%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.3%	35.9%	36.4%	0.98×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.2%	28.2%	21.3%	1.32×	3.55
No goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.5%	33.8%	0.64×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	19.4%	15.7%	8.8%	1.79×	6.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.5%	45.5%	43.0%	1.06×	2.20
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	22.1%	22.8%	21.4%	1.06×	4.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	92.6%	94.1%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Sassuolo not to win both halves	86.8%	87.8%	91.1%	0.96×	1.14
Sassuolo to win both halves	13.2%	12.2%	8.9%	1.37×	8.23
Lecce to win both halves	7.4%	5.9%	10.1%	0.58×	16.99

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to win either half	59.6%	59.1%	48.4%	1.22×	1.69
Lecce to win neither half	53.0%	54.3%	46.8%	1.16×	1.84
Lecce to win either half	47.0%	45.7%	53.2%	0.86×	2.19
Sassuolo to win neither half	40.5%	40.9%	51.6%	0.79×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	86.0%	88.1%	77.4%	1.14×	1.14
Sassuolo not to win to nil	79.0%	78.1%	79.4%	0.98×	1.28
Sassuolo to win to nil	21.0%	21.9%	20.6%	1.06×	4.58
Lecce to win to nil	14.0%	11.9%	22.6%	0.53×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.9%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Sassuolo by 1	21.5%	24.1%	19.4%	1.25×	4.15
Lecce by 1	17.4%	17.0%	22.6%	0.75×	5.87
Sassuolo by 2	13.6%	11.8%	8.7%	1.36×	8.51
Sassuolo by 3+	9.9%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.90
Lecce by 2	8.9%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Lecce by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.75