Lecce v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.03 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
19.2%
Draw
32.0%
Torino win
48.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.76–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 42% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 0.97 xGTorino 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 14' |
Torino |
Ali Dembélé | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Torino |
Ali Dembélé | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 16' |
 Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Lecce |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Thórir Helgason |
| 19' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 22' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Balthazar Pierret |
| 27' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 36' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 38' |
Lecce |
Thórir Helgason | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 41' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 45' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikola Krstovic |
| 47' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 48' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 67' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ante Rebic |
| 68' |
Lecce |
Ante Rebic | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 69' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sergiu Perciun |
| 81' |
Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Lecce |
Antonino Gallo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesare Casadei DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Adam Masina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ali Dembélé DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Valentino Lazaro AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Samuele Ricci DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Gvidas Gineitis AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Sergiu Perciun Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Cacciamani Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Pedersen Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.57 |
| Tete Morente AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 62 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Konan N’Dri AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Thórir Helgason AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Ylber Ramadani Sub | 46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Balthazar Pierret DMC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Ante Rebic Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |