Leeds United v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 14
On target
1 – 7
Shots in box
2 – 12
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 1.34
Goals − xG
-0.18 – +0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
19.3%
Draw
25.8%
Arsenal win
54.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–1.61 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 0.18 xGArsenal 3.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Goal | Noni Madueke |
| 37' |
Leeds United |
Karl Darlow | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 51' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 68' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 71' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 85' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 1.51 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.48 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1.05 |
| Leandro Trossard AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.91 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.00 |
| Kai Havertz AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1.18 |
| Riccardo Calafiori Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Eberechi Eze Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anton Stach AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Justin DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |