Leeds United v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 14
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.59 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-1.13 – +0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
31.1%
Draw
27.9%
Aston Villa win
41.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.09 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 2.13 xGAston Villa 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Gudmundsson |
| 7' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 7' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.76 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 11' |
 Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | John McGinn |
| 13' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 26' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 38' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 43' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 47' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Donyell Malen |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ao Tanaka |
| 54' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 67' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 71' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel James |
| 74' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 76' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 85' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 87' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 90' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 93' |
Leeds United |
Joël Piroe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 95' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Youri Tielemans MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.86 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| Boubacar Kamara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.77 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.03 | 0.56 |
| John McGinn MR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Emiliano Buendía ML | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 38 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.49 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.37 | 0.06 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson FWR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Noah Okafor FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Anton Stach MC | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel James Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |