Leeds United v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 6
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.42 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
37.4%
Draw
28.3%
Brentford win
34.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Brentford are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDDDWDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.3 xG
conceded 14
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.57 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 0.42 xGBrentford 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17' |
 Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 18' |
 Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 28' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 34' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Struijk |
| 38' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 40' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago |
| 45' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Justin |
| 48' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago |
| 50' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 54' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 54' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Leeds United |
Ao Tanaka | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Justin |
| 74' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 88' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Justin |
| 92' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaka Bijol |
| 95' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Jensen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jordan Henderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Schade FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| James Justin ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Jayden Bogle MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Brenden Aaronson AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniel James Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |