Leeds United v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 19
On target
1 – 7
Shots in box
3 – 15
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.90
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -2.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
37.2%
Draw
30.3%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
32.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.68–1.25 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 0.75 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 2.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 10' |
 Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 12' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Joël Veltman | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 25' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 43' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.56 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 48' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 54' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 54' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 55' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 62' |
Leeds United |
Wilfried Gnonto | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 69' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 74' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 76' |
Leeds United |
Joël Piroe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 80' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 88' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 95' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 97' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charalampos Kostoulas |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.03 | 0.71 |
| Maxim De Cuyper DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.85 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Yankuba Minteh AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.65 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.89 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Solly March Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| James Justin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Anton Stach MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Daniel James DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Brenden Aaronson FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Ao Tanaka MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sam Byram Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |