Leeds United v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 1 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.87 – +0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
60.7%
Draw
23.9%
Burnley win
15.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.33–0.88 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 2.13 xGBurnley 0.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 7' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jaka Bijol |
| 9' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Leeds United |
Ao Tanaka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 21' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ao Tanaka |
| 44' |
 Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Loum Tchaouna |
| 44' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hjalmar Ekdal |
| 45' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 46' |
Burnley |
James Ward-Prowse | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 51' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 51' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jayden Bogle |
| 55' |
Leeds United |
Ao Tanaka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 55' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.74 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 64' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 67' |
Burnley |
Bashir Humphreys | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Zian Flemming |
| 70' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jaidon Anthony |
| 73' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 94' |
Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Burnley |
Kyle Walker | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 94' |
Burnley |
Zeki Amdouni | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 95' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Armando Broja |
| 99' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sean Longstaff |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loum Tchaouna MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Jaidon Anthony ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.38 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| James Ward-Prowse MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Josh Laurent MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Hannibal Mejbri Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Lucas Pires Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Florentino Luís Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Zeki Amdouni Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| James Justin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Anton Stach MC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| Ao Tanaka MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Noah Okafor FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 0.58 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Brenden Aaronson Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| Daniel James Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |