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Leeds United v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG

0–0
1.09 – 1.13 xG
Shots
13 – 12
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.52
Goals − xG
-1.09 – -1.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Leeds United 1.09 xGCrystal Palace 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Anton Stach 3' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Quinten Timber 5' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)James Justin 5' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tarik Muharemovic 7' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Adam Wharton 20' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Ao Tanaka 21' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Tarik Muharemovic 21' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Daichi Kamada 23' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Adam Wharton 26' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Jayden Bogle 28' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Quinten Timber 31' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jayden Bogle 32' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ao Tanaka 33' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nico Elvedi 41' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Jefferson Lerma 48' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, From Corner)Yeremi Pino 48' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Direct Freekick)Daichi Kamada 49' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jørgen Strand Larsen 54' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dominic Calvert-Lewin 55' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Tarik Muharemovic 56' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Yeremi Pino 70' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Noah Okafor 74' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Adam Wharton 79' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Daichi Kamada 84' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Tarik Muharemovic 86' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Leeds United attacking right Crystal Palace attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Leeds United Anton Stach 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
5' Crystal Palace Quinten Timber 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Takehiro Tomiyasu
5' Leeds United James Justin 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
7' Leeds United Tarik Muharemovic 0.11 From Corner — Missed Shot Anton Stach
20' Crystal Palace Adam Wharton 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Jaydee Canvot
21' Leeds United Ao Tanaka 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
21' Leeds United Tarik Muharemovic 0.06 Open Play — Blocked Shot Ethan Ampadu
23' Crystal Palace Daichi Kamada 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jørgen Strand Larsen
26' Crystal Palace Adam Wharton 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
28' Leeds United Jayden Bogle 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Gudmundsson
31' Crystal Palace Quinten Timber 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
32' Leeds United Jayden Bogle 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
33' Leeds United Ao Tanaka 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
41' Leeds United Nico Elvedi 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot —
48' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.36 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
48' Crystal Palace Yeremi Pino 0.11 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
49' Crystal Palace Daichi Kamada 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Quinten Timber
54' Crystal Palace Jørgen Strand Larsen 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Adam Wharton
55' Leeds United Dominic Calvert-Lewin 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot James Justin
56' Leeds United Tarik Muharemovic 0.07 Open Play — Missed Shot Ethan Ampadu
70' Crystal Palace Yeremi Pino 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Wharton
74' Leeds United Noah Okafor 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
79' Crystal Palace Adam Wharton 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Quinten Timber
84' Crystal Palace Daichi Kamada 0.32 Open Play — Missed Shot —
86' Leeds United Tarik Muharemovic 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —

Players

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daichi Kamada AMC 90 0 0 3 0 0.41 0.00 0.43
Quinten Timber MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.11 0.07 0.18
Adam Wharton MC 90 0 0 3 2 0.09 0.05 0.18
Tyrick Mitchell DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Jaydee Canvot DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.06
Walter Benítez GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chris Richards DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Anan Khalaili DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Yeremi Pino AMC 83 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.10
Jørgen Strand Larsen FW 83 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.06 0.16
Takehiro Tomiyasu DC 47 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.08
Jefferson Lerma Sub 43 0 0 1 0 0.36 0.00 0.05
Ismaila Sarr Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eddie Nketiah Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Leeds United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.39 0.00 0.43
Tarik Muharemovic DC 90 0 0 4 0 0.32 0.00 0.21
Nico Elvedi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.39
James Justin DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.39 0.47
Anton Stach MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.11 0.04
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gabriel Gudmundsson DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Ethan Ampadu MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.17
Noah Okafor FW 77 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.09
Ao Tanaka MC 68 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Jayden Bogle DMR 68 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.43
Daniel James Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brenden Aaronson Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lukas Nmecha Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean Négoce Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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