Leeds United v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 8
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.17 – -0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
44.0%
Draw
26.1%
Fulham win
29.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLLLDDLWW last 10
scored 11
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 14.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.07 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 2.17 xGFulham 0.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 7' |
 Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 9' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 14' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Leeds United |
Ilia Gruev | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 34' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 44' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 46' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 57' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 62' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 67' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 68' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
Wilfried Gnonto | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilia Gruev |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wilfried Gnonto |
| 82' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Justin |
| 88' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Justin |
| 90' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ethan Ampadu |
| 92' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Harry Wilson AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ryan Sessegnon AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Joshua King Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonah Kusi-Asare Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Issa Diop Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Brenden Aaronson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.72 | 1.58 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| James Justin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.94 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.73 |
| Noah Okafor FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |