Leeds United v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 14
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-1.38 – -1.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
23.5%
Draw
26.9%
Manchester City win
49.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Manchester City are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 24
from 21.3 xG
conceded 10
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.72 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 1.38 xGManchester City 2.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 16' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Struijk |
| 17' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 20' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 21' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 24' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 26' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 39' |
 Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 39' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 47' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 49' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 61' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rúben Dias |
| 61' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rúben Dias |
| 61' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Manchester City |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 70' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Marc Guehi | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rodri |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Rodri | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Rodri | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 85' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Rodri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.49 | 1.29 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.60 | 0.89 |
| Mathis Cherki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.89 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1.23 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nico O'Reilly MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 1.64 |
| Omar Marmoush FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Sávio Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Reijnders Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Aké Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.66 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| James Justin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Anton Stach MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.53 | 1.08 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.76 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brenden Aaronson ML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel James Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaka Bijol Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |