Leeds United v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 6 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 16
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 9
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.71 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.60 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
48.4%
Draw
27.9%
Nottingham Forest win
23.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing sharply below their chances — 10.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDDWLLLD last 10
scored 9
from 19.7 xG
conceded 14
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.04 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 3.60 xGNottingham Forest 1.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Gudmundsson |
| 2' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Justin |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 20' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 23' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | James Justin |
| 23' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.54 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ilia Gruev |
| 29' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 29' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | James Justin |
| 38' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.64 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ilia Gruev |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Ilia Gruev | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilia Gruev |
| 62' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ilia Gruev |
| 65' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Leeds United |
Ilia Gruev | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Justin |
| 72' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 74' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Morato | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 85' | Nottingham Forest | Lorenzo Lucca | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Omari Hutchinson |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 96' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 98' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Ola Aina DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.16 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Zach Abbott DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AMR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lorenzo Lucca Sub | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.07 |
| Dan Ndoye Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 1.10 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.60 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.55 | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| James Justin DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.13 | 1.16 | 0.80 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Noah Okafor AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Daniel James Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |