Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +1.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
38.1%
Draw
27.2%
Tottenham Hotspur win
34.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–1.18 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 1.53 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 6' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.23 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Sean Longstaff |
| 6' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 9' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 22' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohammed Kudus |
| 25' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 26' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 33' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 33' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 36' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 36' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 45' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Wilson Odobert |
| 47' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 54' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 70' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ao Tanaka |
| 77' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 86' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 93' |
Leeds United |
Joël Piroe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 93' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sean Longstaff |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Kudus AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.07 | 0.44 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Wilson Odobert AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Mathys Tel FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Richarlison Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Danso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.14 | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| Noah Okafor FWL | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.16 | 0.84 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brenden Aaronson FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Anton Stach MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Justin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |