Leganes v Castellón — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 28 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Leganes

18:30 UTC

Castellón

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 463h before kick-off

Leganes win

26.4%

model 25.5%

Draw

26.4%

model 26.2%

Castellón win

47.2%

model 48.3%

262647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 13.4%
1-1 12.3%
0-2 9.4%
1-0 9.1%
1-2 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	42.6%	Under 2.5	57.4%
BTTS yes	46.5%	BTTS no	53.5%
Leganes 1+	61.6%	Leganes 2+	24.8%
Castellón 1+	76.0%	Castellón 2+	41.8%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Castellón (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 38%

68.6% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 300 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Leganes not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 76%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1055 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Castellón carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1429.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Castellón have an estimated 47.2% win probability, against 26.4% for the draw and 26.4% for Leganes. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.96 for Leganes and 1.43 for Castellón.

Why Leganes

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. A combined 2.38 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Castellón can win

Castellón carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1429. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Leganes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Raba (0.39), Miguel De la Fuente (0.20), Diego García (0.19).

Availability

2 of Leganes's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Castellón, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Leganes: 41% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Castellón: 60% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Castellón are the model's most likely outcome at 47.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.4%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLDDDWLWW last 10 scored 13 from 13.3 xG conceded 13 from 15.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	262648	0.96–1.43	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	272845	0.90–1.26	0-1 15%	37%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to win	48.3%	49.2%	28.0%	1.75×	2.03
Draw	26.2%	27.5%	26.6%	1.04×	3.63
Leganes to win	25.5%	27.5%	45.5%	0.60×	3.64

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón & not both score	29.5%	26.2%	13.4%	1.95×	3.81
Castellón & both teams score	18.8%	17.8%	14.7%	1.21×	5.61
Draw & both teams score	17.3%	17.8%	17.5%	1.02×	5.62
Leganes & not both score	15.0%	17.8%	23.6%	0.75×	5.62
Leganes & both teams score	10.5%	12.1%	22.0%	0.55×	8.27
Draw & not both score	8.9%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.67

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón & under 3.5	36.3%	37.6%	19.6%	1.91×	2.66
Castellón & over 1.5	34.8%	33.1%	19.4%	1.70×	3.02
Castellón & over 2.5	25.4%	25.5%	16.6%	1.54×	3.92
Castellón & under 2.5	22.9%	21.5%	11.6%	1.86×	4.66
Draw & under 2.5	21.2%	21.5%	20.3%	1.06×	4.66
Draw & under 3.5	21.2%	21.5%	20.3%	1.06×	4.66
Leganes & under 3.5	20.7%	21.5%	32.2%	0.67×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	17.3%	17.6%	17.5%	1.00×	5.68
Leganes & over 1.5	16.4%	17.6%	32.6%	0.54×	5.68
Castellón & under 1.5	13.5%	12.7%	8.7%	1.46×	7.87
Leganes & under 2.5	13.3%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.87
Leganes & over 2.5	12.2%	12.7%	26.3%	0.48×	7.88
Castellón & over 3.5	12.0%	12.7%	8.5%	1.49×	7.88
Leganes & under 1.5	9.1%	7.5%	13.0%	0.58×	13.33
Draw & under 1.5	8.9%	7.5%	9.1%	0.82×	13.33
Draw & over 2.5	5.0%	7.5%	6.4%	1.17×	13.35
Draw & over 3.5	5.0%	7.5%	6.4%	1.17×	13.35
Leganes & over 3.5	4.8%	4.5%	13.3%	0.34×	22.29

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (1UP)	61.4%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Leganes (1UP)	41.1%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (2UP)	48.3%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Leganes (2UP)	25.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to win 2nd half	40.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
2nd half drawn	37.3%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Leganes to win 2nd half	22.0%	22.2%	—	—	4.50

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Castellón over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.6%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Castellón under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.4%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Castellón over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Leganes under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Leganes over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
Leganes over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.31

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (+2.5)	97.6%	97.2%	92.3%	1.05×	1.03
Castellón (+1.5)	91.1%	92.3%	80.5%	1.15×	1.08
Castellón (+0.5)	74.5%	73.2%	54.5%	1.34×	1.37
Leganes (+0.5)	51.7%	51.8%	72.0%	0.72×	1.93
Castellón (-0.5)	48.3%	48.2%	28.0%	1.72×	2.08
Leganes (-0.5)	25.5%	26.8%	45.5%	0.59×	3.73
Leganes (-1.5)	8.9%	7.7%	19.5%	0.39×	12.98
Leganes (-2.5)	2.4%	2.8%	7.7%	0.37×	35.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to concede	61.6%	63.6%	77.5%	0.82×	1.57
Castellón clean sheet	38.4%	36.4%	22.5%	1.62×	2.75

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón clean sheet in 1st half	66.3%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Castellón to concede in 1st half	33.7%	31.9%	—	—	3.14

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón clean sheet in 2nd half	58.0%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Castellón to concede in 2nd half	42.0%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón over 2.5 corners	87.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Castellón over 3.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Castellón under 6.5 corners	64.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Castellón over 4.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Castellón under 5.5 corners	51.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Castellón over 5.5 corners	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Castellón under 4.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Castellón over 6.5 corners	35.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Castellón under 3.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Castellón under 2.5 corners	12.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.8%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Castellón under 2.5 goals	82.7%	81.8%	89.2%	0.92×	1.22
Castellón over 0.5 goals	76.0%	75.3%	67.3%	1.12×	1.33
Castellón under 1.5 goals	58.2%	57.8%	69.4%	0.83×	1.73
Castellón over 1.5 goals	41.8%	42.2%	30.6%	1.38×	2.37
Castellón under 0.5 goals	24.0%	24.7%	32.7%	0.75×	4.06
Castellón over 2.5 goals	17.3%	18.2%	10.8%	1.69×	5.49
Castellón over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.2%	3.0%	2.36×	13.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón under 1.5 in 1st half	88.7%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Castellón under 0.5 in 1st half	56.5%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Castellón over 0.5 in 1st half	43.5%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
Castellón over 1.5 in 1st half	11.3%	12.5%	—	—	8.03

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón scores more in 2nd half	39.9%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Castellón scores equally in both	37.2%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Castellón scores more in 1st half	22.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.7%	51.2%	36.9%	1.39×	1.95
Leganes (away no bet)	49.3%	48.8%	63.1%	0.77×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón even goals	52.9%	52.2%	54.7%	0.95×	1.92
Castellón odd goals	47.1%	47.8%	45.3%	1.06×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.5%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.5%	13.5%	—	—	7.41

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.0%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	44.0%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.4%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Castellón to score 2+ in a row	35.2%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Leganes to score 2+ in a row	18.4%	17.8%	—	—	5.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.3%	17.8%	—	—	5.62
Castellón to score 3+ in a row	12.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Leganes to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.33

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón corners (+3.5)	92.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Castellón corners (+2.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Castellón corners (+1.5)	81.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Leganes corners (+3.5)	69.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Leganes corners (+2.5)	59.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Castellón corners (-1.5)	51.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Leganes corners (+1.5)	48.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Castellón corners (-2.5)	40.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Castellón corners (-3.5)	30.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Leganes corners (-1.5)	18.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Leganes corners (-2.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Leganes corners (-3.5)	7.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
9-11 corners	30.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	70.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	61.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	38.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	29.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	29.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	21.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.5%	11.6%	8.7%	1.33×	8.61
1-1	12.3%	11.6%	11.2%	1.03×	8.62
0-2	9.4%	7.3%	2.9%	2.47×	13.76
0-0	8.9%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.76
1-0	9.1%	7.3%	13.0%	0.56×	13.76
1-2	9.0%	7.3%	7.0%	1.03×	13.76
2-1	6.0%	7.3%	10.1%	0.72×	13.77
0-3	4.5%	1.8%	1.3%	1.43×	55.40
1-3	4.3%	1.8%	3.6%	0.51×	55.40
2-0	4.2%	1.8%	6.4%	0.28×	55.40
2-2	4.3%	1.8%	5.7%	0.32×	55.40
0-4	1.6%	1.8%	0.7%	2.45×	55.47
1-4	1.5%	1.8%	0.8%	2.15×	55.47
2-3	2.0%	1.8%	2.3%	0.78×	55.46
3-0	1.3%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	55.48
3-1	1.9%	1.8%	4.5%	0.40×	55.46
3-2	1.4%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	55.47
Any other score	1.8%	1.8%	2.7%	0.66×	55.46
2-4	0.7%	1.8%	0.7%	2.45×	55.49
3-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.7%	2.45×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.2%	8.58×	55.50
4-0	0.3%	1.8%	1.2%	1.56×	55.50
4-1	0.5%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.50
4-2	0.3%	1.8%	1.2%	1.56×	55.50
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	5.72×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.2%	8.58×	55.51

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (2nd half DNB)	64.9%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Leganes (2nd half DNB)	35.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón leading at HT (DNB)	60.2%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Leganes leading at HT (DNB)	39.8%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw (X2)	74.5%	72.5%	54.5%	1.33×	1.38
Leganes or Castellón (12)	73.8%	72.5%	73.4%	0.99×	1.38
Leganes or draw (1X)	51.7%	50.8%	72.0%	0.71×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw at HT	78.8%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Leganes or draw at HT	67.9%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Leganes or Castellón at HT	53.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw (1UP)	74.5%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Leganes or draw (1UP)	51.7%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw in 2nd half	78.0%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Leganes or Castellón in 2nd half	62.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Leganes or draw in 2nd half	59.3%	60.7%	—	—	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.9%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Neither half drawn	33.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (DNB)	65.4%	68.6%	38.1%	1.80×	1.46
Leganes (DNB)	34.6%	31.4%	61.9%	0.51×	3.18

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to score first	54.6%	53.6%	—	—	1.86
Leganes to score first	36.5%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goal scored	8.9%	6.3%	—	—	15.89

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.5%	53.1%	46.0%	1.16×	1.88
Both teams to score	46.5%	46.9%	54.0%	0.87×	2.13

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	45.1%	45.5%	39.8%	1.14×	2.20
Both score & over 2.5	34.2%	34.3%	42.9%	0.80×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	11.7%	11.2%	1.04×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.7%	6.3%	1.37×	11.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.6%	85.5%	85.6%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.4%	14.5%	14.4%	1.01×	6.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.8%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	20.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
Both score 1st half only	11.1%	11.5%	—	—	8.66
Both score in both halves	3.5%	4.9%	—	—	20.52

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.4%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.6%	14.6%	—	—	6.85

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.0%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
A goal in each half	47.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	45.9%	41.4%	1.11×	2.18
0-1 goals	31.5%	31.8%	30.7%	1.04×	3.14
4-6 goals	20.7%	22.7%	26.6%	0.85×	4.41
7+ goals	1.1%	1.9%	1.6%	1.21×	52.37

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to score exactly 1	34.2%	33.1%	36.9%	0.90×	3.02
Castellón to score exactly 2	24.5%	24.1%	19.9%	1.21×	4.15
Castellón to score exactly 0	24.0%	24.1%	32.7%	0.74×	4.15
Castellón to score 3+	17.3%	18.5%	10.8%	1.71×	5.41

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to score exactly 0	38.4%	36.2%	22.5%	1.61×	2.76
Leganes to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.2%	35.6%	1.02×	2.77
Leganes to score exactly 2	17.6%	18.5%	25.0%	0.74×	5.41
Leganes to score 3+	7.2%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.58

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Castellón leading at HT	32.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Leganes leading at HT	21.2%	21.0%	—	—	4.75

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón -1: 1	51.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Castellón -1: X	24.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Castellón -1: 2	23.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (0:1)	74.5%	69.0%	54.5%	1.27×	1.45
Draw (0:1)	16.6%	18.2%	26.1%	0.70×	5.49
Leganes (0:1)	8.9%	8.6%	19.5%	0.44×	11.64

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (0:2)	91.1%	91.3%	80.5%	1.13×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.5%	7.1%	12.0%	0.59×	14.04
Leganes (0:2)	2.4%	3.0%	7.7%	0.39×	33.61

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (0:3)	97.6%	97.2%	92.3%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	1.9%	2.3%	5.4%	0.43×	43.42
Leganes (0:3)	0.5%	2.3%	2.4%	0.95×	43.73

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.92
Leganes (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	0.4%	2.90×	82.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (1:0)	51.7%	48.1%	72.0%	0.67×	2.08
Draw (1:0)	24.7%	23.0%	18.0%	1.28×	4.36
Castellón (1:0)	23.5%	22.9%	10.2%	2.25×	4.36

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (2:0)	76.5%	77.8%	89.8%	0.87×	1.29
Draw (2:0)	14.5%	12.1%	7.0%	1.71×	8.29
Castellón (2:0)	9.1%	6.6%	3.3%	2.01×	15.26

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.9%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	26.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to concede	76.0%	77.2%	67.3%	1.15×	1.30
Leganes clean sheet	24.0%	22.8%	32.7%	0.70×	4.39

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes clean sheet in 1st half	56.5%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Leganes to concede in 1st half	43.5%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to concede in 2nd half	57.6%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Leganes clean sheet in 2nd half	42.4%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 6.5 corners	86.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Leganes under 5.5 corners	76.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Leganes over 2.5 corners	71.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Leganes under 4.5 corners	63.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Leganes over 3.5 corners	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Leganes under 3.5 corners	46.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Leganes over 4.5 corners	36.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Leganes under 2.5 corners	28.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Leganes over 5.5 corners	23.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Leganes over 6.5 corners	13.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.8%	93.7%	1.04×	1.02
Leganes under 2.5 goals	92.8%	92.2%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Leganes under 1.5 goals	75.2%	76.8%	58.0%	1.33×	1.30
Leganes over 0.5 goals	61.6%	62.8%	77.5%	0.81×	1.59
Leganes under 0.5 goals	38.4%	37.2%	22.5%	1.66×	2.69
Leganes over 1.5 goals	24.8%	23.2%	42.0%	0.55×	4.32
Leganes over 2.5 goals	7.2%	7.8%	17.1%	0.46×	12.83
Leganes over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.2%	6.3%	0.35×	45.26

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 1.5 in 1st half	93.5%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
Leganes under 0.5 in 1st half	66.3%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Leganes over 0.5 in 1st half	33.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Leganes over 1.5 in 1st half	6.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes scores equally in both	47.5%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Leganes scores more in 2nd half	30.8%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Leganes scores more in 1st half	21.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (home no bet)	64.8%	61.5%	51.3%	1.20×	1.63
Draw (home no bet)	35.2%	38.5%	48.7%	0.79×	2.60

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes even goals	57.4%	58.1%	51.8%	1.12×	1.72
Leganes odd goals	42.6%	41.9%	48.2%	0.87×	2.39

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
HT 0-1	21.4%	22.6%	—	—	4.42
HT 1-0	15.4%	18.8%	—	—	5.31
HT 1-1	8.7%	7.7%	—	—	12.98
HT 0-2	6.1%	7.7%	—	—	13.02
HT 2-0	3.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.82
Any other HT score	2.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.84
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.86
HT 2-1	1.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.90
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón at HT / Castellón at FT	26.6%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Draw at HT / Castellón at FT	19.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Leganes at HT / Leganes at FT	13.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.37
Draw at HT / Leganes at FT	10.4%	11.9%	—	—	8.40
Leganes at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.30
Castellón at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.32
Leganes at HT / Castellón at FT	2.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.40
Castellón at HT / Leganes at FT	1.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to score last	54.5%	53.6%	—	—	1.87
Leganes to score last	36.5%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
No goal scored	8.9%	6.3%	—	—	15.89

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.1%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Castellón to lead by 1 at any time	61.4%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Leganes to lead by 1 at any time	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Castellón to lead by 2 at any time	28.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.0%	11.4%	—	—	8.79
Leganes to lead by 2 at any time	12.9%	11.4%	—	—	8.80
Castellón to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	11.3%	—	—	8.83
Leganes to lead by 3 at any time	3.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón most corners	62.7%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Leganes most corners	27.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.7%	81.5%	78.0%	1.04×	1.23
1-3 goals	69.3%	68.3%	62.9%	1.09×	1.46
2-6 goals	67.4%	68.3%	67.9%	1.01×	1.46
2-5 goals	65.1%	68.3%	64.3%	1.06×	1.47
2-4 goals	59.1%	58.9%	56.5%	1.04×	1.70
1-2 goals	48.4%	48.0%	41.9%	1.15×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.0%	41.4%	1.16×	2.08
3-6 goals	41.5%	43.6%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	39.2%	38.9%	44.0%	0.88×	2.57
3-4 goals	33.2%	34.0%	36.2%	0.94×	2.94
4-6 goals	20.7%	24.7%	26.6%	0.93×	4.05
4-5 goals	18.3%	18.1%	23.0%	0.79×	5.51
5-6 goals	8.3%	8.9%	11.5%	0.77×	11.28
7+ goals	1.1%	2.0%	1.6%	1.26×	50.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón never behind	50.0%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Leganes never behind	29.7%	30.9%	—	—	3.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.2%	48.4%	1.04×	1.99
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.8%	51.6%	0.97×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.9%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	43.1%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.5%	95.7%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.1%	93.0%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	90.6%	93.0%	87.1%	1.07×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	78.2%	78.1%	72.0%	1.09×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	68.5%	65.3%	69.3%	0.94×	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	57.4%	57.5%	50.9%	1.13×	1.74
Over 2.5 goals	42.6%	42.5%	49.1%	0.87×	2.36
Under 1.5 goals	31.5%	34.7%	30.7%	1.13×	2.88
Over 3.5 goals	21.8%	21.9%	28.0%	0.78×	4.57
Over 4.5 goals	9.4%	7.0%	12.9%	0.54×	14.21
Under 0.5 goals	8.9%	7.0%	9.1%	0.77×	14.22
Over 5.5 goals	3.5%	4.3%	5.1%	0.84×	23.09

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.3%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.3%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.3%	88.3%	84.8%	1.04×	1.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.5%	72.2%	64.5%	1.12×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.5%	55.6%	61.5%	0.90×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.5%	44.4%	38.5%	1.15×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.5%	27.8%	35.5%	0.78×	3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.7%	11.7%	15.2%	0.77×	8.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.7%	2.8%	5.6%	0.50×	36.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.7%	1.6%	1.67×	36.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.3%	92.2%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.6%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.4%	37.0%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.7%	7.8%	—	—	12.86

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.5%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.2%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.8%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.5%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	18.0%	—	—	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to score in both halves	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Castellón not to score in both halves	74.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Castellón to score in both halves	25.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Leganes to score in both halves	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.5%	49.2%	54.0%	0.91×	2.03
Only Castellón scores	29.5%	25.6%	13.4%	1.90×	3.91
Only Leganes scores	15.0%	16.1%	23.6%	0.68×	6.20
Neither team scores	8.9%	6.6%	9.1%	0.73×	15.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.9%	24.6%	20.4%	1.21×	4.06
Exactly 1 goals	22.5%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	20.8%	21.6%	21.1%	1.02×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	12.4%	12.3%	15.2%	0.81×	8.11
Exactly 0 goals	8.9%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.11
Exactly 5 goals	5.9%	7.6%	7.9%	0.97×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.5%	4.3%	5.1%	0.84×	23.08

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.0%	18.3%	—	—	5.46
3+ goals in 1st half	7.7%	7.8%	—	—	12.86

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.8%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
1 goal in 2nd half	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	24.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to win both halves	95.4%	96.6%	—	—	1.04
Castellón not to win both halves	87.0%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Castellón to win both halves	13.0%	12.5%	—	—	8.03
Leganes to win both halves	4.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.04

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to win neither half	61.4%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Castellón to win either half	59.8%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Castellón to win neither half	40.2%	40.4%	—	—	2.47
Leganes to win either half	38.6%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to win to nil	85.0%	83.6%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
Castellón not to win to nil	70.5%	74.4%	86.6%	0.86×	1.34
Castellón to win to nil	29.5%	25.6%	13.4%	1.90×	3.91
Leganes to win to nil	15.0%	16.4%	23.6%	0.70×	6.08

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.2%	27.9%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Castellón by 1	24.7%	23.9%	18.0%	1.33×	4.18
Leganes by 1	16.6%	17.1%	26.1%	0.65×	5.87
Castellón by 2	14.5%	11.7%	7.0%	1.67×	8.52
Castellón by 3+	9.1%	7.0%	3.3%	2.16×	14.19
Leganes by 2	6.5%	7.0%	12.0%	0.59×	14.25
Leganes by 3+	2.4%	2.8%	7.7%	0.37×	35.38