Leganes v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 14.3%
- 1-1 12.8%
- 1-0 11.0%
- 0-0 10.9%
- 0-2 8.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 37.2% | Under 2.5 | 62.8% |
| BTTS yes | 43.0% | BTTS no | 57.0% |
| Leganes 1+ | 61.0% | Leganes 2+ | 24.3% |
| Mallorca 1+ | 71.1% | Mallorca 2+ | 35.2% |
Expected goals 0.94 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Mallorca carry the stronger rating, 1485 Elo against 1429.
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Mallorca have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 28.5% for Leganes and 28.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.94 for Leganes and 1.24 for Mallorca.
Why Leganes
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.5%. A combined 2.18 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Mallorca can win
Mallorca carry the stronger rating, 1485 Elo against 1429. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Leganes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Raba (0.39), Miguel De la Fuente (0.20), Diego García (0.19). Mallorca's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Vedat Muriqi (0.60), Zito (0.22), Sergi Darder (0.20).
Availability
2 of Leganes's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Mallorca's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Leganes: 41% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Mallorca: 58% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Mallorca are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.3%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 0.84–1.06 | 0-1 16% | 29% | 37% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.