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Leganes v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 24 November 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

0–3
0.11 – 2.73 xG
Shots
4 – 16
On target
0 – 8
Shots in box
0 – 10
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.61
Goals − xG
-0.11 – +0.25
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.52.33.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 42' — goalFederico Valverde 65' — goalJude Bellingham 84' — goal
Leganes 0.11 xGReal Madrid 2.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 4' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 24' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 26' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Munir 28' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Javi Hernández 31' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 38' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Vinícius Júnior 40' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 42' — Goal (0.65 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 45' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 51' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Juan Cruz 53' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 53' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Federico Valverde 65' — Goal (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Arda Güler 73' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 80' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Antonio Rüdiger 84' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Brahim Diaz 84' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jude Bellingham 84' — Goal (0.45 xG, From Corner)Julián Chicco 89' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Brahim Diaz 90' — Blocked Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)
Leganes attacking right Real Madrid attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fran García
24' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Eduardo Camavinga
26' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vinícius Júnior
28' Leganes Munir 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
31' Leganes Javi Hernández 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Renato Tapia
38' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
40' Real Madrid Vinícius Júnior 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jude Bellingham
42' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.65 Open Play Right Foot Goal Vinícius Júnior
45' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Vinícius Júnior
51' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Arda Güler
53' Leganes Juan Cruz 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Darko Brasanac
53' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Raúl
65' Real Madrid Federico Valverde 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Arda Güler
73' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Vinícius Júnior
80' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Vinícius Júnior
84' Real Madrid Antonio Rüdiger 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Luka Modric
84' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Antonio Rüdiger
84' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.45 From Corner Goal
89' Leganes Julián Chicco 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Raba
90' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.46 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Federico Valverde

Players

Leganes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Juan Cruz DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.02
Javi Hernández DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Renato Tapia MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.02
Matija Nastasic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Marko Dmitrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Sergio González DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Miguel De la Fuente FW 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Darko Brasanac AMC 76 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.08
Adrià Alti DMR 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Munir AMC 60 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Yvan Neyou MC 59 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Julián Chicco Sub 31 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
Raba Sub 30 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.00
Sébastien Haller Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valentin Rosier Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Diego García Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Vinícius Júnior FW 90 0 1 1 5 0.05 1.33 1.38
Antonio Rüdiger DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.04 0.20
Federico Valverde DR 90 1 0 1 1 0.02 0.46 1.00
Eduardo Camavinga MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.87
Thibaut Courtois GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Raúl DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.22
Fran García DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.58
Dani Ceballos MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Jude Bellingham ML 88 1 0 1 1 0.45 0.05 0.10
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW 84 1 0 5 0 1.06 0.00 1.40
Arda Güler MR 76 0 1 5 2 0.63 0.10 0.70
Brahim Diaz Sub 14 0 0 2 0 0.50 0.00 0.46
Luka Modric Sub 6 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.46
Endrick Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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