Leicester City v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 17
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 0.27
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.65
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leicester City win
25.1%
Draw
23.9%
Fulham win
51.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.13–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leicester City 0.68 xGFulham 2.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leicester City attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.36 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 2' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Justin |
| 10' |
 Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 10' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 26' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 27' |
Leicester City |
Victor Kristiansen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 36' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 36' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | James Justin |
| 42' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 42' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.15 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.83 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sasa Lukic |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 52' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 55' |
Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 56' |
Leicester City |
Harry Winks | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 61' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 67' |
Fulham |
Adama Traoré | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harry Wilson |
| 69' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adama Traoré |
| 69' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 83' |
Leicester City |
Oliver Skipp | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 94' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1.31 | 2.25 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 1.30 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.05 | 0.84 | 0.96 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.98 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.11 | 1.36 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.85 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Joshua King Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Issa Diop Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Kristiansen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Stolarczyk GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Justin DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Boubakary Soumare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jannik Vestergaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordan Ayew AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Stephy Mavididi AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Oliver Skipp Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kasey McAteer Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patson Daka Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |