Leicester City v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 29 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.84 – +0.41
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leicester City win
13.6%
Draw
16.8%
Manchester City win
69.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.04–2.53 | 1-2 9% | 69% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leicester City 1.84 xGManchester City 1.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leicester City attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 4' |
 Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Kovacic |
| 6' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 11' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rico Lewis |
| 20' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Kovacic |
| 36' |
Leicester City |
James Justin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 37' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 37' |
Leicester City |
James Justin | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 45' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 53' |
Leicester City |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Leicester City |
James Justin | 0.63 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 67' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stephy Mavididi |
| 73' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sávio |
| 75' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 76' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 79' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 84' |
Manchester City |
James McAtee | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 88' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Stephy Mavididi |
| 95' |
Leicester City |
Jannik Vestergaard | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.05 | 0.10 | 1.15 |
| Sávio ML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.45 | 0.86 |
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.87 |
| Kevin De Bruyne MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.75 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.54 |
| Nathan Aké DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Phil Foden MR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| James McAtee Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kyle Walker Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 1.03 |
| Jannik Vestergaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Stephy Mavididi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| Facundo Buonanotte AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.73 |
| Victor Kristiansen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Boubakary Soumare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Jakub Stolarczyk GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Conor Coady DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| James Justin DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Hamza Choudhury Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Caleb Okoli Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patson Daka Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Will Alves Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |