Leicester City v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 25 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 20
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 1.35
Goals − xG
+0.17 – +0.41
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leicester City win
25.9%
Draw
23.1%
Nottingham Forest win
51.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.81 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leicester City 0.83 xGNottingham Forest 2.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leicester City attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stephy Mavididi |
| 10' |
Leicester City |
Wilfred Ndidi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 15' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 15' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harry Winks |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.49 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Leicester City |
Harry Winks | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stephy Mavididi |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 41' |
Leicester City |
Abdul Fatawu | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
| 43' |
Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 46' |
Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Justin |
| 46' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Elliot Anderson |
| 50' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Winks |
| 54' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Álex Moreno |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 66' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Wood |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.61 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 77' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 78' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Abdul Fatawu |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' | Nottingham Forest | Ramón Sosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 84' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Sosa |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Sosa |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yates DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Nicolás Domínguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.63 | 0.06 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Chris Wood FW | 83 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.08 | 0.53 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson AMC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Morato Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Neco Williams Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ramón Sosa Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 0.74 |
| Facundo Buonanotte AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| Abdul Fatawu AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| James Justin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Caleb Okoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Wilfred Ndidi DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Stephy Mavididi AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.73 |
| Ricardo Pereira DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jordan Ayew Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Boubakary Soumare Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |