Lens v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 16
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 12
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.94 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.65 – -0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
68.5%
Draw
19.6%
Angers win
11.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWWLLDLWW last 10
scored 19
from 21.6 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDDLWLDWLL last 10
scored 12
from 15.4 xG
conceded 20
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.97–0.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.51–0.75 | 2-0 12% | 63% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 4.35 xGAngers 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Florent Hanin |
| 6' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 7' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 10' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 10' |
Angers |
Haris Belkebla | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lanroy Machine |
| 10' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florent Hanin |
| 12' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 14' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 14' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Malang Sarr |
| 18' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 23' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 24' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.74 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Florian Thauvin |
| 26' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 29' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malang Sarr |
| 38' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 38' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
| 41' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 42' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 43' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Louãr |
| 43' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 44' |
Angers |
Lanroy Machine | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 46' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 46' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florent Hanin |
| 47' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Florian Thauvin |
| 52' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 54' |
Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 56' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Lens |
Nidal Celik | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 61' |
Angers |
Lanroy Machine | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 65' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 71' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Abdallah Sima |
| 75' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Allan Saint-Maximin |
| 79' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Abdallah Sima |
| 81' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.55 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 85' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fodé Sylla |
| 87' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 88' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan Fofana |
| 92' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Sbaï AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.51 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Oumar Pona GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marius Louãr DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Branco van den Boomen DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| Lanroy Machine FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.65 |
| Florent Hanin DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.39 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Sinaté Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 1.56 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1.64 |
| Nidal Celik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.42 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.87 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.10 |
| Florian Sotoca AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 71 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 0.11 | 2.36 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 71 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0.45 | 1.80 | 2.19 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 48 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.76 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Fodé Sylla Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |