Lens v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
5 – 8
Shots in box
11 – 12
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-2.31 – +1.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
38.0%
Draw
29.2%
Auxerre win
32.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.18–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 2.31 xGAuxerre 2.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lens |
Deiver Machado | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 6' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 16' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 22' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 22' |
Lens |
Deiver Machado | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Auxerre |
Ado Onaiwu | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 38' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 38' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 39' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.87 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 43' |
Auxerre |
Ado Onaiwu | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 47' |
Lens |
Angelo Fulgini | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Goduine Koyalipou |
| 48' |
Lens |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.31 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Anass Zaroury |
| 52' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 58' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Fulgini |
| 58' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 62' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 64' |
Lens |
Juma Bah | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anass Zaroury |
| 68' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 69' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anass Zaroury |
| 71' |
Lens |
Deiver Machado | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Auxerre |
Ki-Jana Hoever | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gaetan Perrin |
| 76' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 81' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 82' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anass Zaroury |
| 94' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 95' |
Auxerre |
Paul Joly | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eros Maddy |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.90 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Anass Zaroury AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.20 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1.22 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.13 | 1.27 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andy Diouf AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| Angelo Fulgini Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| Jeremy Agbonifo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Wesley Said Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Pouilly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaetan Perrin MR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1.08 | 0.45 | 1.99 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.74 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Assane Diousse MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.54 |
| Ki-Jana Hoever DR | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1.80 |
| Jubal DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Ado Onaiwu ML | 77 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 77 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 1.48 | 1.66 |
| Theo Bair Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Florian Aye Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Paul Joly Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Eros Maddy Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.20 |